519
FXUS66 KOTX 102318
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
418 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL US WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THANKS TO THE MARINE LAYER IN WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON
AND A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST ALBERTA PROVIDING A CROSS
CASCADES PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE ASTORIA TO LETHBRIDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PEAK AROUND 11 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10- 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WITH
ENHANCEMENT FROM DIURNAL UPVALLEY FLOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA AND POTENTIALLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN FAR EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID
AS A VERY WEAK WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN BC. THE CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS (5-15%), BUT WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE
INCREASING WILDFIRE RISK.
THE MAIN FIRE RISK WILL COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ASTORIA TO LETHBRIDGE INCREASE TO AROUND 13 MB
AND FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT. A DRY COLD FRONT AND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY RAPID DRYING IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON,
BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE OKANOGAN VALLEY
WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE
DIURNAL UPVALLEY COMPONENT WILL ASSIST THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC
SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE FOR OMAK TO GUST GREATER THAN
30 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER EAST INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO, THERE WILL STILL BE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT
WEAKER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAPID SPREAD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY AS
WELL WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT WITHOUT A LEE CYCLONE IN
ALBERTA, PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE A COUPLE MB WEAKER AROUND 10 MB.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL RIDGING IMPINGES ON THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ENSEMBLES HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DISRUPTION IN THE
MONSOON RIDGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
PACIFIC. THE SPECIFICS OF THIS TROUGH EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT, BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 120-150% OF NORMAL THANKS
TO THE MONSOONAL RIDGE, THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS EVEN LOWER BEYOND MID NEXT WEEK AS
ENSEMBLES ARE NEARLY SPLIT IN HALF WITH STRONG RIDGING
RETURNING QUICKLY BRINGING HOT CONDITIONS OR STAYING IN A
COOLER, CLOUDIER REGIME. /DB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PERSIST WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED SMOKE IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM REGIONAL FIRES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME PASSING
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS
OF 15-25 KTS SATURDAY, DEVELOPING AFTER 15-16Z AND PEAKING
AFTER 18-21Z. SOME ELEVATED AND MOSTLY DRY T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL NEAR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SANDPOINT
AND BONNER'S FERRY, FROM 06Z SATURDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 88 59 84 54 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 60 87 61 83 58 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 53 85 54 80 51 88 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 95 63 89 61 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 87 56 84 50 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 86 59 81 55 89 / 20 0 0 0 10 0
KELLOGG 58 86 58 81 56 89 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 89 58 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 87 62 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 89 59 88 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...NONE.
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