056
FXUS66 KOTX 110532
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1032 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THIS
WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL US WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AN INCREASINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
NW COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, STRONG MONSOONAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL FIRST BRING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
INLAND NW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS FRONT
INTERACTS WITH A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PWAT ANOMALY (~125%) ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR SPRINKLES. PLENTY OF SUB- CLOUD
DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LOW
(5-15%), WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING DAY
SATURDAY. THE DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO QUICK DRYING
OF THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WHILE
THE PDX- GPI PRESSURE GRADIENT STEADILY INCREASES TO 7-8MB
THROUGH THE DAY. RESULTANT BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON AS OUTLINED BELOW.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS OKANOGAN VALLEY, WHERE CHANNELING OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH UPVALLEY/UPSLOPE EFFECTS TO
LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF
THE RFW AREA, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH
SEASONABLY LOW RHS AND LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
SUNDAY, THE INCREASED INFLUENCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDED CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL HELP SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO SATURDAY, THOUGH RHS WILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW, SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN. THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN CREATE A
MORE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER SETUP IN OKANOGAN VALLEY, WITH
ADDITIONAL RFWS FOR THE ZONE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH FUTURE
UPDATES. WINDS FURTHER LIGHTEN FOR MONDAY, THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL GAIN A FEW DEGREES WHILE RHS STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE. WHILE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
ELEVATED CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE PACIFIC TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN NEXT WEEK, WITH INFLUENCE FROM THE MONSOONAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INCREASING ACROSS THE INLAND NW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PWAT
ANOMALIES CLIMBING TO 125-175% ACROSS SE WASHINGTON AND THE
SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN
SOLIDLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JULY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. 25TH-75TH QUARTILE MAX-T SPREAD FROM
THE LREF NOTICEABLY INCREASES TO NEAR 15F BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS
THE ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE WITH THE FINER SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. /PMP
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: AREA-WIDE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. THERE
IS A LOW (5-15%) CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW)
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPOS/PROB30S WITH
THE 06Z TAFS. GUIDANCE INDICATES ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS NORTH OF KMWH MAY SEE
GUSTS 30-35KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 88 59 82 53 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 60 87 61 81 57 90 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 53 85 54 79 51 88 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 95 64 88 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 87 56 83 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 86 58 79 54 89 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 58 86 58 79 56 89 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 90 58 86 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 87 62 84 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 89 59 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...NONE.
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