112
FXUS66 KOTX 112051
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
151 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES INTO MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
REGION. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES INTO MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW: FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY.
THIS MORNINGS WAVE THAT BROUGHT VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
TO SOUTHEASTERN BC HAS MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL
ALBERTA, BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND IT THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE CASCADES AND SYNOPTIC DESCENT. WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TROUGH OFFSHORE VANCOUVER ISLAND BECOMES NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILTED TIGHTENING THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER
WA. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WA BUT THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN REMAINS THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MIXING AND SLOPE ALIGNMENT WILL MIX
DOWN GUSTS TO AROUND 25-35 MPH WITH EASE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE CASCADE GAPS THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AROUND SUNSET ON THE
WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN. THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WILL BE BRUSHED BY A DRY COLD FRONT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING BRINGING AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS TO CENTRAL WA. HOWEVER,
THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU ARE TOMORROW IN THE INLAND
NORTHWEST, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING CIRRUS AS PWATS
ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING THANKS TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
MONSOON HIGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
AND CIRRUS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S
TOMORROW, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. STILL AM EXPECTING ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN DRIER BUT WITH WINDS BEING
WEAKER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, OPTED OUT OF ISSUING ANOTHER RED
FLAG WARNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND DEPARTS AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR MID TO HIGH 90S WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST TOWARDS CENTRAL
WA AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES IN
EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID A FEW DEGREES. LOCATIONS ALONG US-97 HAVE A
20-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 100+ DEGREES TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF QUICKLY MID
NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
WA/OR COAST. THE GRIDDED FORECAST FAILS TO TELL THE STORY. WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE DISRUPTING THE MONSOONAL RIDGE, THAT WOULD OPEN
THE DOOR FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE LREF HAS A 10%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 75 DEGREES AT OMAK THURSDAY. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, THERE IS A 13% CHANCE OF WARMER THAN 95 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING (CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW
AT THIS POINT). INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE MONSOON HIGH ONCE AGAIN IMPINGING ON THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BEYOND THURSDAY. /DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20KTS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KLWS AND KPUW. LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS EXPECTED AT OMAK, GRAND COULEE, AND
WILBUR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TERMINALS WITHIN THE CASCADE RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BE SHELTERED FROM THE AFTERNOON WINDS BUT
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE OF NORTHWEST WINDS 00-03Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST COMES WITH FREQUENCY AND SPEEDS OF WIND GUSTS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 81 53 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 61 80 56 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 54 78 51 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 65 87 61 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COLVILLE 57 82 49 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 78 53 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 58 79 55 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 59 85 54 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 84 60 92 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 86 55 93 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERVILLE
PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...NONE.
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