011
FXUS66 KOTX 112325
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
425 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES INTO MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
REGION. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES INTO MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TOMORROW: FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR OF ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TODAY. THIS MORNINGS WAVE THAT BROUGHT VIRGA SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING TO SOUTHEASTERN BC HAS MOVED RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ALBERTA, BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS
BEHIND IT THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE CASCADES AND
SYNOPTIC DESCENT. WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH OFFSHORE VANCOUVER
ISLAND BECOMES NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILTED TIGHTENING
THE THERMAL GRADIENT OVER WA. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
UNTIL THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WA BUT THE AREA OF
MOST CONCERN REMAINS THE OKANOGAN VALLEY WHERE DEEPER MIXING AND
SLOPE ALIGNMENT WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS TO AROUND 25-35 MPH WITH
EASE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE CASCADE
GAPS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
AROUND SUNSET ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN. THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE BRUSHED BY A DRY COLD FRONT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS TO CENTRAL
WA. HOWEVER, THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU ARE TOMORROW IN THE
INLAND NORTHWEST, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING CIRRUS AS
PWATS ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING THANKS TO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE MONSOON HIGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND CIRRUS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
80S TOMORROW, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. STILL AM EXPECTING
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN DRIER BUT WITH
WINDS BEING WEAKER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, OPTED OUT OF ISSUING
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND DEPARTS AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MID TO HIGH 90S WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
TOWARDS CENTRAL WA AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID A FEW DEGREES. LOCATIONS
ALONG US-97 HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 100+ DEGREES
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF QUICKLY
MID NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFF THE WA/OR COAST. THE GRIDDED FORECAST FAILS TO TELL THE
STORY. WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE DISRUPTING THE MONSOONAL RIDGE,
THAT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE LREF HAS A 10% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
75 DEGREES AT OMAK THURSDAY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, THERE IS A 13%
CHANCE OF WARMER THAN 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
LIGHTNING (CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW AT THIS POINT).
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MONSOON HIGH ONCE
AGAIN IMPINGING ON THE INLAND NORTHWEST BEYOND THURSDAY. /DB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20KTS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KLWS AND KPUW. LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS EXPECTED AT OMAK, GRAND COULEE, AND
WILBUR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TERMINALS WITHIN THE CASCADE RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BE SHELTERED FROM THE AFTERNOON WINDS BUT
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE OF NORTHWEST WINDS 00-03Z. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASING BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE KOMK AND NORTH TO CENTRAL WA AIRPORTS,
WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. MAIN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST COMES WITH FREQUENCY AND SPEEDS OF WIND GUSTS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 81 53 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 61 80 56 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 54 78 51 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 65 87 61 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COLVILLE 57 82 49 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 78 53 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 58 79 55 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 59 85 54 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 84 60 92 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 86 55 93 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERVILLE
PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...NONE.
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