586
FXUS66 KOTX 120557
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1057 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP IN THE IN OKANOGAN
VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES INTO MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY,
BUT THE HEAT WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY MAKE A
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: STRONG MONSOONAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE A RELOADING LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ATTENDANT DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE INLAND NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING OF THE
AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON, THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY AS SATURDAY. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AS
A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE REGION MAY CAUSE
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN, AND COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
UPVALLEY EFFECTS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS A BIT. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT PORTIONS OF THE ZONE SEE CRITICAL OR NEAR-RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT THINKING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT ARE SMALL
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
A PLUME OF ELEVATED PWATS (ANOMALIES 125-150%) ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. IN
TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT, SEVERAL DEGREES WILL BE SHAVED OFF
THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY COMPARED TO FRI/SAT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S MAKE A RETURN MONDAY
AS INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENS, WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES FROM THE RIDGE IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE A BIT LESS BREEZY THAN SUNDAY, BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: TUESDAY WILL BE WARM TO HOT AGAIN WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN THIS HEAT EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NBM
SHOWING ONLY ABOUT A 5 DEGREE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD FOR
HIGH TEMPS. THIS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT WAS WITH THE 01Z RUN
YESTERDAY. INCREASING PWATS WILL HELP OFFSET THE IMPACT TO RHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MAY ALSO CREATE AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST
AMONG THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE WEST POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY BREAKING DOWN
AND INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ENS/GEPS MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKDOWN, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS WELL CONVEYED BY
NBM TEMPERATURE SPREAD SKYROCKETING TO OVER 15 DEGREES THURSDAY.
AS SUCH, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES HINT THAT ELEVATED PWAT ANOMALIES MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH COULD POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING, POTENTIALLY WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN SEEN DURING
THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. INTERESTINGLY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT HIGHER CERTAINTY IN THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AGAIN BY
THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING.
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
WINDS OF AROUND 6-7KTS OR LESS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEAT, WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE 15-20KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH AREAS IN THE CASCADE
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE SHELTERED UNTIL A NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT
OCCURS BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z.
OTHERWISE, AN INFLUX OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL THEN SLOWLY
BREAK UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN PEAK WIND GUSTS AND WIND SHIFT TIMING NEAR THE CASCADES SUNDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 81 53 91 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 61 80 56 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 54 78 51 87 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 65 87 61 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 57 82 49 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 78 53 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 58 79 55 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 59 85 54 92 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 84 60 92 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 60 86 55 93 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERVILLE
PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page