325
FXUS66 KOTX 121223
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
523 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP IN THE IN OKANOGAN
VALLEY.
- WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GREATLY INCREASES INTO MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING.
SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY,
BUT THE HEAT WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY MAKE A
RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: STRONG MONSOONAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
ESTABLISHED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE A RELOADING LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ATTENDANT DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING
ACROSS THE INLAND NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DRYING OF THE
AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON, THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY AS SATURDAY. THIS WILL AMOUNT TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AS
A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE REGION MAY CAUSE
CHANNELING THROUGH THE TERRAIN, AND COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
UPVALLEY EFFECTS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS A BIT. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT PORTIONS OF THE ZONE SEE CRITICAL OR NEAR-RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, BUT THINKING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT ARE SMALL
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
A PLUME OF ELEVATED PWATS (ANOMALIES 125-150%) ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. IN
TANDEM WITH THE COLD FRONT, SEVERAL DEGREES WILL BE SHAVED OFF
THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY COMPARED TO FRI/SAT.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S MAKE A RETURN MONDAY
AS INFLUENCE FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WEAKENS, WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES FROM THE RIDGE IMPINGING ON THE REGION. WINDS WILL AGAIN
BE A BIT LESS BREEZY THAN SUNDAY, BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: TUESDAY WILL BE WARM TO HOT AGAIN WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN THIS HEAT EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NBM
SHOWING ONLY ABOUT A 5 DEGREE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD FOR
HIGH TEMPS. THIS ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT WAS WITH THE 01Z RUN
YESTERDAY. INCREASING PWATS WILL HELP OFFSET THE IMPACT TO RHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MAY ALSO CREATE AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST
AMONG THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MONSOONAL RIDGE TO THE WEST POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY BREAKING DOWN
AND INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF ENS/GEPS MEMBERS INDICATE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKDOWN, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS WELL CONVEYED BY
NBM TEMPERATURE SPREAD SKYROCKETING TO OVER 15 DEGREES THURSDAY.
AS SUCH, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES HINT THAT ELEVATED PWAT ANOMALIES MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH COULD POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
LIGHTNING, POTENTIALLY WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN SEEN DURING
THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. INTERESTINGLY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT HIGHER CERTAINTY IN THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AGAIN BY
THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING. /PMP
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF VIRGA
WILL STREAM ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO THROUGH 00Z THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST. THERE IS A SMALL RISK (5%) OF A ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH IDAHO 12-1330Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE 8-11KTS WITH INFREQUENT
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15KTS. AREAS IN THE CASCADE VALLEYS WILL
LIKELY BE SHELTERED WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF BREEZY WINDS COMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECISE AREAS OF VIRGA OR LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING.
AREA WILDFIRES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HAZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY 5-6SM.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 81 53 92 59 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
COEUR D'ALENE 79 56 91 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
PULLMAN 78 51 88 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
LEWISTON 87 62 95 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
COLVILLE 82 48 90 56 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 77 53 89 60 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
KELLOGG 79 55 89 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
MOSES LAKE 84 54 93 60 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 84 60 92 66 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 86 55 93 62 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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