295
FXUS66 KOTX 280714
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1214 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TUESDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL WA.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY, AUGUST 1ST DUE TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY: UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE PNW/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND, AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN A DRY
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE RESULTANT DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. AREAS WITH THE MOST RISK
INCLUDE THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND OKANOGAN VALLEY, WHICH HAVE A 20-
50% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE
20 PERCENT, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES MAY STILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
SPREAD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
CASCADE CREST, BUT ELSEWHERE CHANCES ARE AT OR VERY NEAR ZERO.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
REGION WILL AGAIN BE IN BETWEEN OFFSHORE TROUGHING AND A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S. BY
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING BACK
WEST, CENTERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MOSTLY ISOLATED MODERATE HEATRISK VALUES, AND ALL
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
REMAIN ADEQUATELY COOL AND HYDRATED. WHILE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEASONABLY BREEZY, THE THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH TO THE BASIN, CASCADE
GAPS, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND OKANOGAN VALLEY AREAS. THESE TWO DAYS
WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAYS DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS USHERED
IN BY THE COLD FRONT DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE
TEENS.
NEXT WEEKEND: LONG-TERM GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
STRONGLY SUPPORT THE NEXT POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY BEING
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL USHER ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, ALONSIDE A STRONG SURFACE LEVEL LOW ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFF
SHORE SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PUSH OF WINDS
ALONGSIDE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT NBM PROBABILITIES, A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE AND
ABOVE AT 30 MPH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS. WHEN LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR
40 MPH WIND GUSTS, THE CHANCES SHRINK DOWN TO THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, OKAONGAN VALLEY, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS, WHICH HAVE
A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE AND AND ABOVE. WITHIN THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU AREA, THERE IS EVEN A 30% CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR WIND GUSTS 50
MPH OR HIGHER. THESE PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSELY
MONITORED AS ANY NEW IGNITIONS OR ONGOING FIRES COULD EXPERIENCE
RAPID EXPERIENCE RAPID SPREAD. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN AT OR NEAR ZERO PERCENT,
BRINGING VERY LITTLE RELIEF AT THIS POINT OF THE FIRE SEASON.
/AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS (CURRENTLY BEING SEEN AT SFF AND PUW) WILL BE DUE
TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES RESULTING FROM SURFACE LEVEL WILDFIRE
SMOKE AND HAZE. HIGH RESOLUTION SMOKE GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, AND LWS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, FUTURE AMENDMENDS MAY BE
NEEDED AS SMOKE IMPACTS UNFOLD. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25KTS AROUND 18Z, WITH WINDS RELAXING AFTER
00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRE
SMOKE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS,
AND TIMING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 88 56 86 54 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 87 57 86 57 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 84 51 83 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 93 61 91 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 87 50 87 49 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 86 54 84 53 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 84 54 83 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 89 55 87 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 86 59 88 62 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 91 55 89 57 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN
VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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