922
FXUS66 KOTX 281815
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1115 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TUESDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL WA.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY, AUGUST 1ST DUE TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 80S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY: UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OFF THE PNW/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
WILL MOVE INLAND, AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN A DRY
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE RESULTANT DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. AREAS WITH THE MOST RISK
INCLUDE THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND OKANOGAN VALLEY, WHICH HAVE A 20-
50% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MOSTLY STAYING ABOVE
20 PERCENT, FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES MAY STILL EXPERIENCE RAPID
SPREAD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT THE
CASCADE CREST, BUT ELSEWHERE CHANCES ARE AT OR VERY NEAR ZERO.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE
REGION WILL AGAIN BE IN BETWEEN OFFSHORE TROUGHING AND A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S. BY
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING BACK
WEST, CENTERING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MOSTLY ISOLATED MODERATE HEATRISK VALUES, AND ALL
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
REMAIN ADEQUATELY COOL AND HYDRATED. WHILE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SEASONABLY BREEZY, THE THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASING ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BRING WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH TO THE BASIN, CASCADE
GAPS, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND OKANOGAN VALLEY AREAS. THESE TWO DAYS
WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAYS DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS USHERED
IN BY THE COLD FRONT DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE
TEENS.
NEXT WEEKEND: LONG-TERM GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
STRONGLY SUPPORT THE NEXT POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY BEING
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL USHER ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, ALONGSIDE A STRONG SURFACE LEVEL LOW ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
THE OFF SHORE SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PUSH
OF WINDS ALONGSIDE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT NBM
PROBABILITIES, A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, THERE IS A 60
PERCENT CHANCE AND ABOVE AT 30 MPH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE CHANCE FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS, THE CHANCES SHRINK
DOWN TO THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, OKANOGAN VALLEY, AND UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS, WHICH HAVE A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE AND
AND ABOVE. WITHIN THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AREA, THERE IS EVEN A
30% CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR WIND GUSTS 50 MPH OR HIGHER. THESE
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY NEW
IGNITIONS OR ONGOING FIRES COULD EXPERIENCE RAPID SPREAD.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAIN AT OR NEAR ZERO PERCENT, BRINGING VERY LITTLE RELIEF AT
THIS POINT OF THE FIRE SEASON. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED TO 10SM FOR ALL SITES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES RESULTING FROM
SURFACE LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE AND HAZE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSIONS SET IN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOST AIRFIELDS SEEING GUSTS OF
20-25KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES IN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF WIND
SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFTS TODAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 86 56 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 55 86 54 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 83 51 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 91 61 92 61 95 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 50 87 48 90 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 53 85 51 87 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 54 83 53 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 54 87 53 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 60 88 60 89 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 55 89 58 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN
VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page