666
FXUS66 KOTX 282216
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
316 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRIVEN BY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, AUGUST 1ST AS A
ROBUST COLD FRONT DELIVERS STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON ON
TUESDAY. NEAR-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S LATE IN THE WEEK. A POTENT SYSTEM ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE INLAND, PUSHING A DRY
"COLD" FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE CASCADE GAPS, ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, INTO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, AND UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH, DECREASING AROUND 8PM TO 10PM. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORTUNATELY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LATE
ENOUGH THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
MITIGATE A DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RHS WILL TREND DRIER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED
TO TUESDAY, REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW (5 TO 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SWING INLAND, DRIVING A STRONG DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND POSITIONING AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET (120+ KTS AT 200 MB) DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITH SURFACE
WIND FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH
HAVE RISEN TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND LEWISTON-CLARKSTON
VALLEY. OVER THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES A 50 TO
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THESE IMPRESSIVE
WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SHARP COOLDOWN WILL LIMIT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ON SATURDAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME COMPARED TO SATURDAY
BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN ON MONDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. /FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED TO 10SM FOR ALL SITES THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES RESULTING FROM
SURFACE LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE AND HAZE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSIONS SET IN. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOST AIRFIELDS SEEING GUSTS OF
20-25KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES IN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDES OF WIND
SPEEDS AND WIND SHIFTS TODAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 86 56 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 55 86 54 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 83 51 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 91 61 92 61 96 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 50 87 48 90 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 53 85 51 87 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 54 83 53 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 54 87 53 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 60 88 60 89 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 55 89 58 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHELAN
COUNTY-DOUGLAS COUNTY-OKANOGAN COUNTY-FERRY COUNTY-STEVENS
COUNTY-ASOTIN COUNTY-KALISPEL RESERVATION IN PEND OREILLE
COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FOOTHILLS OF
CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705).
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LATAH
COUNTY-NEZ PERCE COUNTY- LEWIS COUNTY.
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