702
FXUS66 KOTX 290508
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1008 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
NEAR-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE INLAND, PUSHING A DRY
"COLD" FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE CASCADE GAPS, ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, INTO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, AND UP THE OKANOGAN VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH, DECREASING AROUND 8PM TO 10PM. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT OF NORMAL. FORTUNATELY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LATE
ENOUGH THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
MITIGATE A DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RHS WILL TREND DRIER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED
TO TUESDAY, REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LOW (5 TO 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHEAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SWING INLAND, DRIVING A STRONG DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND POSITIONING AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL JET (120+ KTS AT 200 MB) DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITH SURFACE
WIND FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH
HAVE RISEN TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND LEWISTON-CLARKSTON
VALLEY. OVER THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FOCUSED, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES A 50 TO
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THESE IMPRESSIVE
WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SHARP COOLDOWN WILL LIMIT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ON SATURDAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME COMPARED TO SATURDAY
BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN ON MONDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. HRRR SMOKE SHOWS A PLUME OF SURFACE SMOKE MOVING
INTO THE SPOKANE AREA OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5SM OR LESS. SMOKE FROM OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE AS
WELL, RESULTING IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 6SM AT KPUW AND
KLWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KGEG/KSFF FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 54 86 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 87 56 86 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 84 49 83 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 93 61 91 63 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 89 49 87 48 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 87 53 84 53 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 84 54 83 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 89 53 87 56 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 86 58 87 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 89 54 90 58 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHELAN
COUNTY-DOUGLAS COUNTY-OKANOGAN COUNTY-FERRY COUNTY-STEVENS
COUNTY-ASOTIN COUNTY-KALISPEL RESERVATION IN PEND OREILLE
COUNTY.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LATAH
COUNTY-NEZ PERCE COUNTY- LEWIS COUNTY.
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