720
FXUS66 KOTX 291126
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
426 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
NEAR-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN A DIGGING GULF OF ALASKA
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN AMPLIFIED FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO. BECAUSE OF THIS, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HEIGHTS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE
FOUR CORNERS RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE GULF
OF ALASKA LOW NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, INITIATING A BRIEF
WARMING TREND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22-24C ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. NOT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR, BUT WARM ENOUGH
TO BRING LOCALIZED MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK TO URBAN AREAS AND
LOWER ELEVATION RIVER VALLEYS.
…WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY…
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY, DRIVING A DYNAMIC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY AS IT MOVES INLAND, WITH
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTED FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY OUTSIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST, ALL OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE WRUNG OUT OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS, MOVING THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST AS A DRY COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM FEATURES A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK (UP TO 120
MPH) SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO 994-1000 MB. THIS
SETUP DRIVES A STRONG REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT (YKM-YQL CLIMBING
TO +10 TO +15 MB), SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE AN 80-100% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH
AND GREATER ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
WHERE THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM 0.70-0.90 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO 0.35-0.50 INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FOLLOWING A HOT DAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
WEAK POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) OF LIGHTNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CREST,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING EAST OF THE CREST IS
LOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BC COAST INTO THE
PNW ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS
INTO THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS PERSIST, ENSEMBLES
INDICATE STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
REBUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, INITIATING
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND DURATION OF THE RIDGE, WITH 11% OF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. /VMT
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE THE REGION. HRRR/REFS NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE PROJECTIONS
INDICATE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES <=6SM AT KLWS AND
KPUW THIS AFTERNOON FROM LARGE WILDFIRES IN OREGON. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT KEAT
LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10KTS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE AT
THE TAF SITES, NAMELY KPUW AND KLWS THIS AFTERNOON. FUTURE
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF VISIBILITIES DIP BELOW 6SM. /PMP
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 86 56 88 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 86 57 88 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 83 51 84 51 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 91 63 92 62 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 87 48 89 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 84 53 87 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 83 55 85 55 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 87 56 90 57 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 87 61 90 63 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 90 58 93 60 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN
OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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