707
FXUS66 KOTX 291826
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1126 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
NEAR-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPDATE: FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
REGIONWIDE FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN A DIGGING GULF OF ALASKA LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
AMPLIFIED FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
BECAUSE OF THIS, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HEIGHTS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE
FOUR CORNERS RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AS THE
GULF OF ALASKA LOW NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, INITIATING
A BRIEF WARMING TREND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 22-24C ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. NOT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR, BUT WARM ENOUGH TO BRING LOCALIZED MODERATE (ORANGE)
HEATRISK TO URBAN AREAS AND LOWER ELEVATION RIVER VALLEYS.
…WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY…
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY, DRIVING A DYNAMIC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY AS IT MOVES INLAND, WITH
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION FORECASTED FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. UNFORTUNATELY OUTSIDE OF THE CASCADE CREST, ALL OF THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE WRUNG OUT OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINS, MOVING THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST AS A DRY COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM FEATURES A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK (UP TO 120
MPH) SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW TO 994-1000 MB. THIS
SETUP DRIVES A STRONG REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT (YKM-YQL CLIMBING
TO +10 TO +15 MB), SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE AN 80-100% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH
AND GREATER ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
WHERE THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING FROM 0.70-0.90 INCHES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO 0.35-0.50 INCHES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FOLLOWING A HOT DAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
WEAK POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY NEAR THE CASCADE CREST MAY SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) OF LIGHTNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CREST,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING EAST OF THE CREST IS
LOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BC COAST INTO THE
PNW ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS
INTO THE WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISKS PERSIST, ENSEMBLES
INDICATE STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
REBUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, INITIATING
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND DURATION OF THE RIDGE, WITH 11% OF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE THE REGION. HAZE IS LINGERING AROUND KEAT THIS MORNING
KEEPING VISIBILITIES AROUN 6SM, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
BY 20Z. HRRR/REFS NEAR- SURFACE SMOKE PROJECTIONS INDICATE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES <=6SM AT KLWS AND KPUW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES IN OREGON. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT KEAT
LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10KTS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT AT
KEAT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE AT THE TAF SITES, NAMELY KPUW AND KLWS. FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED IF VISIBILITIES DIP BELOW 6SM.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 87 57 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 55 87 54 91 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 84 50 88 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 92 61 96 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 48 88 50 91 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 49 86 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 84 54 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 54 89 55 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 89 62 93 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 56 92 57 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA
(ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE
705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN
VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE
101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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