940
FXUS66 KOTX 292227
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
327 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES BACK INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. A ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG
SURFACE WINDS AND BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, DRIVING A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND POSITIONING AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET (120+ KTS AT 200 MB) DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGH SURFACE WIND FORECASTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH RANGE FROM 70 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND LEWISTON- CLARKSTON
VALLEY. OVER THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND BLUE MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS INDICATES A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 MPH. THESE IMPRESSIVE WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO
LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SHARP COOLDOWN WILL LIMIT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON SATURDAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME COMPARED TO
SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. /FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE DUE TO LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM WILDFIRE
SMOKE THE REGION. HAZE IS LINGERING AROUND KEAT THIS MORNING
KEEPING VISIBILITIES AROUND 6SM, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
BY 20Z. HRRR/REFS NEAR- SURFACE SMOKE PROJECTIONS INDICATE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES <=6SM AT KLWS AND KPUW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES IN OREGON. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT KEAT
LATER THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10KTS AT THE TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT AT
KEAT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE AT THE TAF SITES, NAMELY KPUW AND KLWS. FUTURE AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED IF VISIBILITIES DIP BELOW 6SM.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 87 57 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 55 87 54 91 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 84 50 88 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 92 61 96 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 48 88 50 91 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 49 86 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 84 54 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 54 89 55 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 89 62 93 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 56 92 57 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA
(ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE
705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CHELAN
COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY, OKANOGAN COUNTY, FERRY COUNTY,
STEVENS COUNTY, PEND OREILLE COUNTY, AND ASOTIN COUNTY.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE
101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR LATAH COUNTY,
LEWIS COUNTY, AND NEZ PERCE COUNTY.
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