329
FXUS66 KOTX 300611
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1111 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES BACK INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. A ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG
SURFACE WINDS AND BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, DRIVING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, DRIVING A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND POSITIONING AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL JET (120+ KTS AT 200 MB) DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGH SURFACE WIND FORECASTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH RANGE FROM 70 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND LEWISTON- CLARKSTON
VALLEY. OVER THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND BLUE MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS INDICATES A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 MPH. THESE IMPRESSIVE WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO
LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SHARP COOLDOWN WILL LIMIT HIGHS
ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON SATURDAY. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME COMPARED TO
SATURDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HREFS
HAS A NEAR 100% PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND HAZE COULD BRING SLIGHT DEGRADATION TO VIS
BUT NO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE DECLINING
OVERNIGHT INTO LIGHT VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN. WINDS WILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE 15-20Z THURSDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING NEAR
THE SURFACE FROM DIURNAL HEATING. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND 04Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 55 88 56 92 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 57 88 58 92 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 84 50 90 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 62 92 61 97 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 47 89 51 93 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 52 87 53 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 85 55 89 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 54 90 55 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 90 62 94 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 57 93 59 96 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA
(ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE
705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN
VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE
101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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