452
FXUS66 KOTX 301114
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
414 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES BACK INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, BOOSTING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. A
ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND
BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-
12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY AND FRIDAY: A BROAD RIDGE IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH THE APEX CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE THE DRY, WARM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN THE INLAND
NORTHWEST SINCE WEDNESDAY. 850MB MAX TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 20-21C
FOR THURSDAY AND 22-24C ON FRIDAY. IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80 TO 90S FOR MOST. LEWISTON HAS AROUND A 50% PROBABILITY OF
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ON FRIDAY. AREAS BEING IMPACTED BY WILDFIRE
SMOKE COULD HAVE A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF THE FORECAST HIGH.
HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH WEAK AFTERNOON THERMAL LOWS WILL BRING
BRIEF INCREASES TO WINDS WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE TEENS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR THURSDAY AND 60S FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY: THIS CONTINUES TO BE MAIN FOCUS. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SWING A STRONG +120KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS WA AS A LOW SWINGS INTO
THE LOWER BC. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMITED TO
THE CASCADE CREST. THE LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH 850MB-500MB WINDS RANGING FROM 25-50KTS.
THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS THE FRONT PASSES. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
SPEEDS AND TIMING. FOR SPEEDS, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO
LOW 30 MPH RANGE. WEAKER WINDS IN THE TEENS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER
IDAHO PANHANDLE. FOR GUSTS, A RANGE OF 30 TO LOW 40S FOR MOST. THE
LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL HAVE GUSTS INTO THE 20S. OUTSIDE OF THE
LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE, PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH
IS AT LEAST 60 PERCENT. SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, LEWISTON, AND WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN INCLUDING WATERVILLE PLATEAU DOWN TO WENATCHEE HAS 20-
40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 50 MPH GUSTS. IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. HIGHS FOR THE
DAY WILL BE IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A RANGE OF UPPER 70S TO LOW
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
SUNDAY: WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT COOLER, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY. THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 20S CONTINUING TO IMPACT ONGOING AND NEW FIRES IN THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A FLAT RIDGE WILL FILL IN BEHINDS THE
EXITING LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE DIURNAL TREND OF BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND CALM
OVERNIGHTS. THE WARM, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR THE START OF AUGUST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY PERIODICALLY IMPACTS
SURFACE VISIBILITIES. AT THE TAF SITES, SMOKE IMPACTS SHOULD
AMOUNT TO MAINLY 6-9SM VISIBILITIES, THOUGH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT 4-5SM IS OBSERVED AT TIMES. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10KTS OR LESS IN MOST AREAS,
WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF KPUW/KLWS/KEAT WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT KEAT WILL ALSO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 10KTS AFTER 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS, AS
WELL AS VISIBILITIES PREVAILING IN VFR RANGE. INCREASED
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR, WITH THE LIKELY EXCEPTIONS OF KMWH
AND KEAT WHICH SHOULD STAY VFR. LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OUTCOME. /PMP
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 88 56 92 60 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 88 58 92 61 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 84 50 90 54 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 92 61 97 65 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 89 51 93 54 89 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 87 53 90 56 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 85 55 89 59 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 90 55 93 60 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 90 62 94 66 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 93 59 96 63 93 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA
(ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE
705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN
VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE
101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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