396
FXUS66 KOTX 310618
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1118 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S.
- CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-50
MPH WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- NOT AS WINDY ON SUNDAY, BUT BREEZY AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAINING ELEVATED.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S THROUGH SATURDAY. A
ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND
BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
TO LOCALIZED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-
12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
REVEALS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ROUNDING THIS LOW IS A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN AT 45N 155W
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH DISTINCT DRYING OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE. THIS DRY SLOT IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT IS A CONCERN FOR IMPACTS ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PEAKING FOR THE WEEK IN
THE 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES AREN'T ABNORMALLY WARM FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR, BUT THEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS SETTING UP
A CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER PERIOD AS WINDS CRANK WITH THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. P-WATS
WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE
PLUMMETING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
* WINDS: STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE WILL SPIN UP A DEEP SURFACE ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE GREAT DIVIDE IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA DOWN TO
BETWEEN 992 TO 996 MB. THIS WILL GENERATE A POTENT WEST TO
EAST SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON. MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING PEAK MIXING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK TO BE UP TO
20-30 MPH AND LOCALLY UP TO 35 MPH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND THE LOWER GARFIELD/ASOTIN COUNTIES IN THE
NORTHEAST BLUES. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IS
EXPECTED AND COULD LOCALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH FOR THESE
WINDIER LOCATIONS.
* IMPACTS: THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES. ALL AREAS
ARE GOING TO BE AT RISK OF SEEING AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND MOST BEING QUITE GUSTY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE,
AND AREAS WENATCHEE TO THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, COLVILLE
RESERVATION, AND COLUMBIA BASIN TO THE SPOKANE AREA, PALOUSE,
AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE WIND SPEEDS PREDICTED. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
IT USUALLY TAKES A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS
THAN PREDICTED TO PICK UP DUST, AND THAT ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE
AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS WITH FIRE WEATHER.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SHIFTING WINDS IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND A BACKSIDE
SHORTWAVE ALSO SWINGS ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, BUT NOT NEAR
AS WINDY AS SATURDAY WITH WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO AROUND 10-15 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS. WINDS SWITCH NORTHERLY DOWN THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND INCREASE AT 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND THAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH THE SHIFTING WIND
DIRECTIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS FINALLY RELAX NEXT WEEK UNDER
WEAKER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. FIRES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE WITHOUT
ANY MOISTURE, AND WE WILL SEE NORTHERN WINDS PUSHING SMOKE FROM
FIRES BURNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE SMOKE AND A DEGRADATION OF
AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, INTO THE SPOKANE
AREA/PALOUSE, AND IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE BRIEFLY IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY, BUT THEN WARM BACK UP
AGAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: SMOKE AND HAZE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF FIRES IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL RESULT IN MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY
(BETWEEN 3-6 SM) FROM THE METHOW VALLEY (KS52) TO OMAK (KOMK) TO
COLVILLE (K63S). THERE WILL ALSO BE SMOKE THAT DRIFTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH IN FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS, AS
WELL AS VISIBILITIES PREVAILING IN VFR RANGE. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 55 93 60 87 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 57 93 61 87 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 91 54 83 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 61 98 66 93 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 50 93 54 89 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 53 90 57 86 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 90 59 83 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 55 94 60 88 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 62 94 67 84 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 58 96 64 91 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA
(ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE
705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ASOTIN, CHELAN, DOUGLAS,
FERRY, OKANOGAN, AND STEVENS COUNTIES.
ID...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE
101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR CLEARWATER, IDAHO,
LATAH, LEWIS, AND NEZ PERCE COUNTIES.
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