996
FXUS66 KOTX 311948
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1248 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, BOOSTS
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. A ROBUST COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND BRING LOW HUMIDITY
ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALIZED EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL BY 8-12 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
...STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY...
TODAY: A BROAD RIDGE IS STRETCHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
THE APEX CENTERED OVER WESTERN MT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
DRY, WARM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST SINCE
WEDNESDAY. 850MB MAX TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 22-24C ON FRIDAY. IT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80 TO 90S FOR MOST. LEWISTON HAS
AROUND A 50% PROBABILITY OF REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. AREAS BEING
IMPACTED BY WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD HAVE A FEW DEGREES SHAVED OFF THE
FORECAST HIGH. HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH WEAK AFTERNOON THERMAL LOWS WILL
BRING BRIEF INCREASES TO WINDS WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE TEENS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY: IT CONTINUES TO BE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE WINDS ON SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SWING A STRONG +120KT UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS WA AS A LOW
SWINGS INTO THE LOWER BC. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST. THE LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG DRY
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH 850MB-500MB WINDS
RANGING FROM 30-60KTS. THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SPEEDS AND TIMING. FOR SPEEDS,
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO LOW 30 MPH RANGE. WEAKER WINDS
IN THE TEENS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE. FOR GUSTS, A
RANGE OF 30 TO LOW 40S FOR MOST. THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL HAVE
GUSTS INTO THE 20S. OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE,
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH IS AT LEAST 60
PERCENT. SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, LEWISTON, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
INCLUDING WATERVILLE PLATEAU DOWN TO WENATCHEE HAS 20-40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 50 MPH GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, IMPACTS INCLUDE BLOWING DUST AND MINOR TREE AND PROPERTY
DAMAGE. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE NEXT MODEL
RUNS. HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A RANGE
OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
SUNDAY: WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT COOLER, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY. THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 20S CONTINUING TO IMPACT ONGOING AND NEW FIRES IN THE
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND FUNNEL DOWN THE
OKANOGAN ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU BRINGING LOCALLY HIGHER
SPEEDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A FLAT RIDGE WILL FILL IN BEHINDS THE
EXITING LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE DIURNAL TREND OF BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND CALM
OVERNIGHTS. THE WARM, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCES OF
BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR THE START OF AUGUST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRESENT AND MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. A CLUSTER OF
LARGER FIRES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON MAY RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES 3-6SM BETWEEN METHOW VALLEY (KS52) TO KOMK AND
COLVILLE (K63S). ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITIES MAY PERIODICALLY DIP
TO 5-7SM, PARTICULARLY AT KPUW/KLWS AND KMWH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND SHIFTS. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT THE TAF
SITES EXCEPT KEAT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 60 87 51 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 61 87 52 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 54 83 45 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 65 93 57 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 53 89 44 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 57 86 48 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 59 84 49 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 60 88 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 84 56 80 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 63 91 50 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -
SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
(ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW
VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS
(ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR ASOTIN, CHELAN,
DOUGLAS, FERRY, OKANOGAN, PEND OREILLE, STEVENS, GRANT, LINCOLN,
AND SPOKANE. COUNTIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR EAST
PORTION OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN
NATIONAL RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON
CENTRAL CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH
CASCADES (ZONE 698).
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE 101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR LATAH, LEWIS, AND NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES.
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