214
FXUS66 KOTX 010003
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
503 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN WARMING BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS
AND BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL
BY 8-12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE NORTHWEST AND CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
130W LONGITUDINAL LINE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FUELING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IT'S PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST TOMORROW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A
FAIRLY DEEP SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP EAST OF THE GREAT DIVIDE IN
ALBERTA AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL ALL BE
SQUEEZED OUT WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST LEAVING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
* WINDS: A POTENT WEST TO EAST SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO
20-30 MPH AND LOCALLY UP TO 35 MPH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON
AND THE LOWER GARFIELD/ASOTIN COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST BLUES.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IS EXPECTED AND COULD LOCALLY
GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH FOR THESE WINDIER LOCATIONS.
* FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS: THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES.
ALL AREAS ARE GOING TO BE AT RISK OF SEEING AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND MOST BEING QUITE GUSTY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE, AND AREAS WENATCHEE TO THE WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, COLVILLE RESERVATION, AND COLUMBIA BASIN TO THE
SPOKANE AREA, PALOUSE, AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE WIND
SPEEDS PREDICTED. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER HAS THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS)
ATTACHED TO THEM. THIS INDICATES THE RARE SITUATION IN WHICH
FUELS ARE EXTREME DRY IN COMBINATION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY WINDY,
DRY EVENT. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
* SECONDARY IMPACTS: WINDS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF MINOR TREE DAMAGE
THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER SECONDARY
CONCERN TO WATCH FOR WILL BE FOR BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. WE AREN'T IN THE BLOWING DUST SEASON WHEN FARM FIELDS ARE
BEING PLANTED, SO ANY BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY. NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS SATURDAY, BUT
STILL DRY AND ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AND A BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE ALSO SWINGS ACROSS DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SWITCH NORTHERLY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND INCREASE AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS PICK
UP OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RECOVER. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO RELAX NEXT
WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. FIRES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE
WITHOUT ANY MOISTURE, AND WE WILL SEE NORTHERN WINDS PUSHING SMOKE
FROM FIRES BURNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE SMOKE AND A DEGRADATION OF
AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, INTO THE SPOKANE
AREA/PALOUSE, AND IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE
BRIEFLY IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY, BUT THEN WARM BACK UP AGAIN BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /SVH
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. SMOKE AND HAZE
WILL BRING BRIEF IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AROUND THE REGION BUT
NOT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 1600-1800Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE 0600Z.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS TO 20S WITH GUSTS AROUND
35-40 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND SHIFTS. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT THE TAF
SITES EXCEPT KEAT. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 60 87 51 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 61 87 52 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 54 83 45 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 65 93 57 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 53 89 44 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 57 86 48 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 59 84 49 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 60 88 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 66 84 56 80 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 63 91 50 82 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -
SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
(ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW
VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS
(ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR ASOTIN, CHELAN,
DOUGLAS, FERRY, GRANT, LINCOLN, OKANOGAN, PEND OREILLE,
SPOKANE, STEVENS COUNTIES.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR EAST
PORTION OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN
NATIONAL RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON
CENTRAL CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH
CASCADES (ZONE 698).
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE 101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR LATAH, LEWIS, AND NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES.
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