787
FXUS66 KOTX 010827
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
127 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN WARMING BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS
AND BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL
BY 8-12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...
TODAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH
IMPACT FIRE WEATHER EVENT WITH STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
A STRONG +120KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS WA AS A LOW
SWINGS INTO THE LOWER BC. ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST. THE LOW WILL PUSH A STRONG
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH 850MB-500MB
WINDS RANGING FROM 30-60KTS. THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS THE FRONT PASSES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 8 PDT.
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH SPEEDS AND TIMING. FOR
SPEEDS, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO LOW 30 MPH RANGE.
WEAKER WINDS IN THE TEENS WILL BE OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. FOR
GUSTS, A RANGE OF 30 TO LOW 40S FOR MOST. THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE GUSTS INTO THE 20S. OUTSIDE OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE,
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH IS AT LEAST 60
PERCENT. SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, LEWISTON, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN INCLUDING WATERVILLE PLATEAU DOWN TO WENATCHEE HAS 20-40
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 50 MPH GUSTS. IMPACTS
INCLUDE BLOWING DUST AND MINOR TREE AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. HIGHS
FOR THE DAY WILL BE IN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A RANGE OF UPPER
70S TO LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.
SUNDAY: WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT COOLER, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS SUSTAINED IN
THE TEENS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S CONTINUING TO IMPACT ONGOING
AND NEW FIRES IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH
AND FUNNEL DOWN THE OKANOGAN ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A FLAT RIDGE WILL FILL IN BEHINDS THE
EXITING LOW. IT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE DIURNAL TREND OF BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND CALM
OVERNIGHTS. THE WARM, DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANCES
OF BENEFICIAL PRECIP FOR THE START OF AUGUST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. SMOKE AND HAZE
WILL BRING BRIEF IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES AROUND THE REGION BUT
NOT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 1600-1800Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE 0600Z.
WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS TO 20S WITH GUSTS AROUND
35-40 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 05Z BUT STILL
REMAIN BREEZY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND SHIFTS. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT THE TAF
SITES EXCEPT KEAT. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 87 51 77 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 87 52 76 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 83 45 72 43 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 93 57 79 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 89 45 79 44 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 86 49 75 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 84 49 70 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 88 52 81 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 84 57 79 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 91 51 81 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COLVILLE RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-
FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-
OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR EAST PORTION OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL
PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST
WASHINGTON CENTRAL CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON
NORTH CASCADES (ZONE 698).
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE
101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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