549
FXUS66 KOTX 012133
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
233 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN WARMING BACK
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DRIVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS
AND BRING LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, CREATING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL
BY NEARLY DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING BREEZY WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...
TODAY: A ROBUST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WITH 110+ KT
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OF WASHINGTON AS A DEEP LOW MOVES
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS LOW WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW
700MB 30-40KT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NBM SHOWS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH AN 80% CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH. WHEN LOOKING AT CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH, SPOKANE,
PULLMAN/LEWISTON, THE COLUMBIA BASIN, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY HAVE A 30% CHANCE AND ABOVE. THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING 50+ MPH GUSTS, WITH A 70% CHANCE
AND ABOVE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED REGIONWIDE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS)
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLVILLE, OKANOGAN VALLEY,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, WESTERN AND EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE,
SNAKE RIVER, AND SPOKANE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 10 TO 15
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE PDS IS VALID FROM 2PM THROUGH 8PM. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR ANY
NEW OR ONGOING FIRES. PLEASE HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
INSTRUCTIONS FROM EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EXPECT WIND IMPACTS
ALONGSIDE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS, SUCH AS TROUBLE DRIVING,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, MINOR TREE DAMAGE, BLOWING
OBJECTS, AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S. THIS IS AROUND
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE STILL CREATING AN 8-10MB GRADIENT BETWEEN SEA AND MSO,
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY, BUT NOT NEAR THE LEVEL THAT THEY
ARE TODAY. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CASCADE GAPS WILL BE 25-30 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THROUGHOUT THE SPOKANE, COEUR D'ALENE,
PULLMAN, AND BASIN AREAS, WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH. DUE
TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS STILL
A POSSIBLE IMPACT FOR ANY ONGOING FIRES TOMORROW, EVEN WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, A RIDGE
RIGHT ALONG THE PNW COAST WILL STRENGTHEN. NEARLY 100 PERCENT OF
CLUSTERS SUPPORT RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY
WEDNESDAY AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ALONG THE CASCADE GAPS WILL BE SEASONABLY BREEZY, WITH GUSTS
15-20 MPH EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A NEAR ZERO
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE CASCADE GAPS, SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM DRY
CONDITIONS. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: TAFS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. AS
WINDS INCREASE REGIONWIDE, SMOKE AND HAZE IMPACTS WILL DECREASE,
AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AT GEG, SFF, PUW, AND EAT TO
20-25KTS, AND WILL INCREASE AT OTHER SITES AROUND 21Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-40 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEEDS OF WINDS. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR VISIBILITIES PREVAILING AT THE TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 76 50 81 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 52 75 50 80 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 44 71 42 76 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 57 78 53 83 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 44 78 43 82 44 88 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 48 74 44 78 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 48 70 48 75 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 51 79 52 83 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 57 77 56 84 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 50 80 52 84 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -
SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
(ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-METHOW
VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS
(ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-SELKIRK MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 700)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698).
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE 101).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE
COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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