266
FXUS66 KOTX 020715
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1215 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN WARMING BACK
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES COOL BY NEARLY DEGREES ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LINGERING
BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WARM,
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TODAY BEHIND THE STRONG DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE FROM
SATURDAY THAT BROUGHT THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH WEAKER, WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE WEST. STRONGER GUSTS
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTH FOR THE OKANOGAN VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH WINDS
INE NE WASHINGTON SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS
ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A COLD POOL ALOFT AT 500MB
NEAR -20C WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. YET
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ANY CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE UNLIKELY
TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND, OTHER THAN
SPRINKLES. A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST HOWEVER
WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS, A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW OCCURS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A WARMING TREND WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY MORE ROUNDS OF SMOKE WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES, INCLUDING SMOKE COMING DOWN
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE THE SMOKE ISSUES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SEVERAL AIR
QUALITY AGENCIES HAVE ISSUED AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH DRY AIR
PERSISTING. THE ZONAL FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BRING AN UPTICK
IN WIND SPEEDS WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWING 15-25 MPH GUSTS
ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON, AND 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS
BY FRIDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO EASE OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE IMPACTS DUE TO SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES, WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
KGEG, KSFF AND KCOE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED AROUND 16-20Z. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 20 TO 25 KT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEEDS OF WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR SMOKE IMPACTS TO BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR KGEG, KSFF AND
KCOE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 76 50 81 51 87 56 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 75 50 80 52 86 55 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 72 43 77 45 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 79 54 83 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 78 43 82 44 88 48 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 74 44 78 47 83 50 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 70 48 76 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 79 52 83 54 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 78 56 84 60 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 80 51 85 55 91 59 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CHELAN COUNTY,
OKANOGAN COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY, GRANT COUNTY, FERRY COUNTY,
STEVENS COUNTY, PEND OREILLE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY, SPOKANE
COUNTY, ASOTIN COUNTY.
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR LATAH COUNTY,
NEZ PERCE COUNTY, LEWIS COUNTY.
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