405
FXUS66 KOTX 031221
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
521 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO BRING UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY THEN WARMING BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
BROAD RIDGE PATTERN WILL BRING A WARMING, DRY TREND OVER THE
REGION. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING DEGRADED AIR QUALITY FOR THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. SMOKE COULD REDUCE DAILY HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WILL EXIT INTO MONTANA THIS MORNING. AS THIS
TROUGH EXITS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH DAY. GIVEN THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY MORE ROUNDS OF SMOKE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES, INCLUDING SMOKE COMING DOWN FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE THE SMOKE ISSUES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. SEVERAL AIR
QUALITY AGENCIES HAVE ISSUED AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SMOKE COVER, TEMPERATURES COULD NOT
REACH POTENTIAL AND END UP COOLER THAN FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT WITH DRY AIR
PERSISTING. THE ZONAL FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BRING AN UPTICK
IN WIND SPEEDS WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWING 15-25 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON EACH DAY, AND 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE CASCADE
GAPS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LEAD INTO THE MORNING FOR
TERMINALS IMPACTED FROM SMOKE DUE TO AREA WILDFIRES, WITH VFR
ELSEWHERE. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR, AND
EVEN LOCALIZED IFR, VISIBILITIES TO KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KMWH AND
POSSIBLY KEAT FOR MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHERLY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT FOR SOME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMOKE IMPACTS
BRINGING MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES FOR AREA TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 80 50 86 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 79 51 85 54 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 76 44 83 47 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 82 54 89 58 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 82 42 87 46 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 77 46 83 49 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 75 49 81 52 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 83 52 89 54 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 84 60 90 64 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 85 54 91 58 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY- LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-
OKANOGAN VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN- WASHINGTON
PALOUSE- WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY- WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY. ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL
NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-IDAHO PALOUSE-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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