639
FXUS66 KOTX 182048
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
148 PM PDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY, WARM CONDITIONS LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS TODAY.
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDER THREATS AND GUSTY WINDS
INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS.
SYNOPSIS
INCREASED AFTERNOON WINDS LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY
WILL BRING COOLER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY
WILL FEATURE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON INCREASES PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CASCADES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE LOWER PALOUSE AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST
OF LEWISTON AND IN THE CASCADE GAPS ONCE DOWNVALLEY FLOW
DOMINATES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.
OVERALL EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 MPH FOR THE CASCADE GAPS AND THE LOWER
PALOUSE/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THANKS TO DEEP MIXING AROUND
700-600 MB AND TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TROUGHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY BUT THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS INTO THE WEEKEND IS MUDDY AT BEST. LATEST EPS/CMC ENSEMBLES
(70% OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES) KEEP THE TROUGH WEST OF OREGON
AND MORE AMPLIFIED SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE LATEST GEFS
ENSEMBLE (30% OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES) STILL BRINGS THIS TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY WHICH FAVORS A DRIER AND WINDIER SCENARIO. EITHER WAY,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS STAGE AS
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THE EPS/CMC ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WITH DECENTLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW AROUND 35-50 KT, INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR DRY LIGHTNING. IN THE GEFS SOLUTIONS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 15-25%. CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HOW THIS TIME PERIOD WILL PLAY OUT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 80S, BUT THE EXACT EVOLUTION BEHIND THIS TROUGH
REMAINS UNCLEAR. /DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD WITH ISOLATED MVFR VIS/CIGS DUE TO SMOKE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS MOSTLY AT
KGEG-KSFF-KPUW-KEAT-KLWS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 59 88 56 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 58 88 57 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 86 50 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 61 92 62 98 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 51 88 50 93 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 54 85 53 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 55 85 55 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 56 89 56 94 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 65 90 66 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 62 91 62 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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