230
FXUS66 KOTX 191724
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1024 AM PDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDER THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY WILL
BRING COOLER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WARM, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL RISE A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND BRING MODERATE HEATRISK TO
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BASIN AND
VALLEYS HAVE AT LEAST 60% PROBABILITY OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 90
DEGREES FOR THESE DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE REGION CAN EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING OF THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. 40%
OF ENSEMBLES MEMBERS HAVE A SLOWER RIDGE BREAKDOWN AND A LOW
TRACKING OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. 60% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
THE RIDGE SLIDING EAST QUICKER AND THE LOW TRACKING OFF THE
COAST OF WASHINGTON. THE FORECAST TREND HAS LOWERED THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 10% BUT HAS
INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO 10-30% ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLER TREND AS SATURDAYS
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AS THE LOW EXITS, THE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
SATURDAY. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN, ENSEMBLES ARE PUSHING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IT KEEPS A WEAK THREAT OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SMOKE FROM
LOCAL WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT
KMWH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SMOKE MODELS SHOW
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT 6SM OR GREATER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 89 56 93 59 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 89 57 93 60 95 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 86 50 92 54 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 93 62 98 65 99 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 89 50 92 52 95 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 86 53 89 56 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 86 55 90 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 90 57 94 60 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
WENATCHEE 91 66 94 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
OMAK 92 62 94 64 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR OKANOGAN
COUNTY, CHELAN COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY, AND GRANT COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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