220
FXUS66 KOTX 192118
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
218 PM PDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDER THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY WILL
BRING COOLER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY DRYING AND WARMING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S, WITH MODERATE HEATRISK BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AREA, INCLUDING THE SPOKANE/CDA AREA. ALL
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES SHOULD MAKE SURE THEY HAVE
ADEQUATE ACCESS TO COOLING AND HYDRATION, AND SOME SYSTEMS AND
INDUSTRIES WILL BE IMPACTED. ON THURSDAY, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
BROUGHT ON BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
DEGC/KM WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE CASCADES,
ESPECIALLY FOR ALREADY ESTABLISHED WILDFIRES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: WHILE MODELS ARE STILL WORKING OUT DETAILS ON
TIMING, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH
90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGITS, LEADING TO AREAS OF
MAJOR HEATRISK. WITH MAJOR HEATRISK, ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
AND HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES COULD SEE
IMPACTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION RAISING PWATS TO 125
TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY
COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT MIXING WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THESE
SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS ISOLATED IN NATURE, AS HIGHER
PWATS INCREASE IN COVERAGE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE, ESPECIALLY INTO LATER SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS AND
ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STEEP TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.
ADDITIONALLY, IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AND HIGHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
REGION TO SEE WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30 MPH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS INCLUDE THE LEWISTON, MOSES LAKE,
WENATCHEE, AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU AREAS. THESE AREAS HAVE A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS 35 MPH OR HIGHER. THIS WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THESE WINDS INCLUDE RAPID SPREADING OF WILDFIRES
ALONGSIDE BLOWING OBJECTS AND DIFFICULTIES DRIVING, ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
BY SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA, BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE BASIN,
CASCADE, AND PALOUSE AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OBSERVED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEARLY TEN DEGREES. THIS COOLDOWN WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BEING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY. APART FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP DOWN TO NEAR ZERO.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (80 PERCENT OF
CLUSTERS) INDICATING A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW, WITH POPS 15 PERCENT AND LOWER
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SMOKE FROM
LOCAL WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT
KMWH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SMOKE MODELS SHOW
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT 6SM OR GREATER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 93 59 95 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 56 93 60 96 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 49 92 54 96 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 61 98 65 101 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
COLVILLE 50 93 51 96 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 54 90 56 93 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 55 90 58 95 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 56 94 59 96 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 20 20
WENATCHEE 66 95 68 96 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 20 40
OMAK 62 95 64 96 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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