204
FXUS66 KOTX 200600
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1100 PM PDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDER THREAT AND GUSTY WINDS,
RESULTING IN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY WILL
BRING COOLER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND FRIDAY: WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WARM, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS.
THURSDAY WILL HAVE MODERATE HEATRISK TO PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
AND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. FRIDAY WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE LOWER BASIN HAS AROUND 60-80%
PROBABILITY OF 100+ DEGREES. MANY AREAS INCLUDING SPOKANE,
PULLMAN, LEWISTON, AND MOSES LAKE CAN REACH MAJOR HEATRISK.
INCREASING CLOUDS COULD IMPACT THE HIGHS BY KEEPING THEM A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S.
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE REGION CAN EXPECT A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLES HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF AN INCOMING LOW. IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
THE OREGON COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY TRACK OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SLOWER TRACK KEEPS THE
THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE CASCADE CREST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY (10-30% PROBABILITY) WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL
KEEP THE STORMS FROM DELIVERING DECENT PRECIPITATION TO AN
AREA. THE FAST MOTION IS MAKING DRY LIGHTNING A CONCERN.
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL BE
SUSTAINED 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLER TREND AS SATURDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS THE LOW EXITS, THE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE
COAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN, ENSEMBLES ARE PUSHING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IT KEEPS A WEAK THREAT OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
90S. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SMOKE FROM LOCAL WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, BUT SMOKE MODELS SHOW
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT 6SM OR GREATER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 94 59 97 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 56 93 60 98 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 49 93 55 97 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 61 99 66 102 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COLVILLE 50 93 52 96 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 54 90 56 94 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 55 91 58 96 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
MOSES LAKE 56 95 59 98 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
WENATCHEE 66 95 69 96 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
OMAK 62 95 64 98 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page