494
FXUS66 KOTX 220654
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1154 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR NORTHEASTERN WA AND
NORTH IDAHO FOR SATURDAY.
- SATURDAY SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
- PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR
HEATRISK. A PATTERN CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
DRY, BUT COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. TODAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE HIGH 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BASIN. THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD MAJOR
HEATRISK VALUES, SO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES COULD SEE
IMPACTS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS VALID THROUGH MUCH OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING AND LOW TEMPERATURES INTO
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S AND PROVIDE LITTLE OVERNIGHT
RELIEF.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RAISE PWATS TO 125 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL, AROUND
0.75 TO 1 INCH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A 40-50KT 500MB JET AND WARM OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE THESE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS ISOLATED IN NATURE,
AS DAYTIME WARMING INCREASES, THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PWATS
NEAR 1 INCH AND DCAPE VALUES 500 J/KG AND HIGHER, MAIN IMPACTS LOOK
TO BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50
MPH, AND LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. STEEP TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THIS THREAT
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, AND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THE ID PANHANDLE SEES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TO REFLECT THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FROM
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE ID PANHANDLE,
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE BASIN AND SPOKANE AREA.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE AND HIGHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
REGION TO SEE WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30 MPH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS INCLUDE THE LEWISTON, MOSES LAKE,
WENATCHEE, AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE BASIN, PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE AREAS IS VALID FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THESE
WINDS INCLUDE RAPID SPREADING OF WILDFIRES ALONGSIDE BLOWING
OBJECTS AND DIFFICULTIES DRIVING, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.
WHILE MODELS INITIALLY HAD THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA QUICKER,
THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW LINGERS OVER THE STATE OF
WASHINGTON THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RESIDUAL WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. ONE THING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS THE
EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH-RES MODELS PICK UP THE END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY
MORNING, THEY ARE SHOWING ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
FIRE ZONE 708 (EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN/PALOUSE/SPOKANE AREA) THAT IT
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-
20 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE CASCADE GAPS, OKANOGAN VALLEY,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE/CDA, AND PALOUSE AREAS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN DUE TO THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OBSERVED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING AROUND TEN OR
MORE DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY. APART FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP DOWN TO NEAR ZERO.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (80 PERCENT OF
CLUSTERS) INDICATING A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S.
CLUSTERS SHOW A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
PNW COAST, THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK ARE UNCERTAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OVERALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW, WITH POPS 15 PERCENT AND LOWER
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: AN INFLUX OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A 10-30%
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND 5-10% CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN
06-13Z. BRIEF, GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. AS THIS CLEARS, A RENEWED THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL START IN THE NORTH CASCADES AFTER 19Z THEN
EXPAND INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, EASTERN WA, AND NORTHERN WA
23-06Z. ANY CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TS IN THE TAF BUT THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE AROUND 00Z FOR KLWS-KPUW-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. VSBYS
AT KEAT WILL DEGRADE THIS EVENING AROUND 07-08Z AS NORTHWEST
WINDS BRING IN SMOKE FROM THE LITTLE GIANT FIRE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE,
AND SPOKANE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT TO WEST IN THE EVENING AT KEAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR TS AT TERMINALS BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR OUTFLOW WINDS
TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 MPH.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 68 94 59 82 54 87 / 10 10 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 68 95 60 81 53 86 / 10 10 40 0 0 0
PULLMAN 62 91 51 78 46 86 / 10 10 30 0 0 0
LEWISTON 72 98 62 87 59 92 / 10 10 40 0 0 0
COLVILLE 60 95 52 81 45 87 / 10 10 40 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 62 93 56 77 47 83 / 10 20 40 10 0 0
KELLOGG 63 92 55 77 52 84 / 10 10 40 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 69 95 56 85 54 89 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 76 94 63 83 62 88 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
OMAK 71 96 56 85 56 88 / 10 20 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-
NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE
AREA-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
SELKIRK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 700).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -
SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
(ZONE 701)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709)-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
EAST PORTION OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN
NATIONAL RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON
CENTRAL CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH
CASCADES (ZONE 698)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY
(ZONE 703).
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE 101).
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