016
FXUS66 KOTX 230000
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR NORTHEASTERN WA AND
NORTH IDAHO FOR SATURDAY.
- SATURDAY WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ALONG
WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN.
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THIS IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND DRY, BUT
COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: A DEEP LOW BEGINS ITS MIGRATION INTO THE REGION. MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING INLAND AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGING HEAVY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR LEWISTON THIS MORNING
WHERE THERE ARE A FEW MIDLEVEL CIRCULATIONS NOTED WITHIN THE
MIDLEVELS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRIKES WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL WA EITHER DUE TO SUBTLE CIRCULATIONS SHOWING
UP IN THE WATER VAPOR. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND DRY NEAR THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH, ANY RAIN FALLING IS LARGELY EVAPORATING BUT THIS
IS LEADING TO ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. SEVERAL
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A FEW CELLS
THAT CAN DRIVE RAIN TO THE SURFACE COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40 MPH.
THIS BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY LIFT SOUTH TO
NORTH AND CLEAR ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE TO THE WA COAST,
INTO THE NORTH CASCADES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS NE WA AND N ID SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED 500MB COLD POOL MIGRATES
INLAND, LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING IN THE 90S. AREAS OF NE WA AND N ID WILL ONLY COOL 3-4
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED. ONE OF
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. INITIALLY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL COOLING WILL ARRIVE
CLOSER TO MIDDAY BUT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND EJECT
INLAND THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO DEVELOP OVER IDAHO, EASTERN AND
NORTHERN WA WILL INCREASE. THIS LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY CELLS THROUGH THE DAY, RAIN
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SHAFTS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25 TO 50 MPH GIVEN THE HIGH BASED
NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION, EXTREMELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS, AND
DCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. IN THE MOST INTENSE OUTFLOWS, WINDS COULD
GUST CLOSER TO 60 MPH. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH
THE DAY AS WILL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND FIRE STARTS.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY. AWAY FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, STRONG SYNOPTIC DRIVEN WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN AND THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR FLOODS INLAND. ANY
ONGOING OR NEW FIRES WILL STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO BE FANNED BY
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH. GIVEN OUR FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS, THIS IS
VERY CONCERNING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS, OUTFLOW WINDS, AND LIGHTNING STARTS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE ARE IN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LIGHTNING STARTS
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THOUGH THE CASCADES WILL EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COOLER AIR
FLOODS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRAW HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS BUT
IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE FUELS TO REACT.
WE EXPECT VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA BASIN SO THIS WILL MAINLY BE A WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
ISSUE. FOR THE EASTERN BASIN, THE COMBINATION OF PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOUR MAKES THIS A DUAL THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER.
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR BLOWING DUST ON SATURDAY AROUND
MOSES LAKE, RITZVILLE, AND WILBUR WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR OMAK
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO
BLOWING ASH NEAR ANY FIRE SCARS.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
REGION-WIDE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND BREEZY
WINDS BECOMING THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROMOTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. THIS IS
QUICKLY INTERRUPTED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS THROUGH THE NW COMES WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN REPEATS
ITSELF AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WE ARE NOT SEEING A LOT OF SIGNS FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WITH THESE SYSTEMS INDICATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OR HIGHER AS WE NAVIGATE THE END OF AUGUST. /SB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: LINGERING INSTABILITY AND AN INCOMING SYSTEM CONTINUE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW CELLS COULD
BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. GREATEST RISK
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND INTO
THE FAR EASTERN REACHES OF WA. THIS INCLUDES KLWS, KPUW, KGEG,
KSFF, AND KCOE. THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF CENTRAL WA WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST IN THE EVENING. LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 30KTS
POSSIBLE AROUND KEAT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. SMOKE FROM THE
CASCADE FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KEAT AT TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR TS AT TERMINALS BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR OUTFLOW WINDS
TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 MPH.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 58 81 52 86 56 93 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 58 79 53 86 56 93 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 50 77 45 86 50 93 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 61 85 56 91 62 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 51 79 44 86 47 92 / 20 30 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 55 76 47 82 51 90 / 60 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 54 76 51 84 54 90 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 55 84 53 88 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 63 83 61 87 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 55 84 53 88 58 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SELKIRK MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 700).
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON
CASCADES (ZONE 705)-LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE
709)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
(ZONE 707).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR EASTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701).
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND
KETTLE MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE 101).
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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