469
FXUS66 KOTX 232321
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
421 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. TEMPERATURES WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S BY TUESDAY. THE HEAT BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR
BREEZY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WILL TRACK TO THE EAST
AND COME TO AN END BEFORE 6PM THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ALSO SUBSIDE WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE INLAND NW OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ALLOWING DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INLAND
NW. THIS WILL PROMOTE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY THEN
90S TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH DIURNAL, TERRAIN
INFLUENCE. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO ONGOING FIRES WILL BE THE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE NEAR 10K FT AGL OR
HIGHER.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL
BEGIN ITS SLOW JOURNEY INLAND. THE LATEST CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE FOR WEAKER IMPULSES SLINGING OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW TO COME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
THESE IMPULSES WILL HELP DRAW MIDLEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE REGION THOUGH THE MOISTENING WILL BE SUBTLE AND
FORCING WEAK LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH A
GLANCING BLOW TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WA AND THE LOWER IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THE SECOND, SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE COMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A 5-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND MOUNTAINS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SWING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
BC/NW MT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TIMING WILL BE KEY TO
HOW THE WINDS PLAY OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, TIMING
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL CLOSE ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING PEAK HEATING THEN
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
COOLER AIR FLOODS INLAND. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A SHORT PERIOD OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERLAPPING WITH THE HOT/DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, IF TIMING IS SOONER, WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. THURSDAY DOES
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING TODAY (SUNDAY) AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK FROM THE 90S
WEDNESDAY TO 80S THURSDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH COVERAGE LARGELY ISOLATED.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: WE SEE A LOT MORE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GENERAL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR ACROSS
THE BOARD THAT THE PAC NW WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH BUT HOW THIS COMES THROUGH COMES WITH MANY
DIFFERENT FLAVORS. SOME ARE WINDY WHILE OTHERS NOT SO MUCH. SAME
MESSAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM THREATS. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE COMES
WITH TEMPERATURES BEING AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME-FRAME
AND LITTLE TO NO SIGNALS WIDEPSREAD PRECIPITAITON EVENTS. /SB
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: OTHERWISE, DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
BETWEEN 1Z-4Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR KMWH, KGEG, KCOE, KPUW OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAIN UNCERTAINTY
AND POTENTIAL FOR FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE SMOKE INTO KEAT
DRIVING DOWN VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM. THIS COMES WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE ELEVATED WINDS IN PLACE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 53 87 55 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 53 86 55 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 46 86 50 95 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 56 92 60 99 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
COLVILLE 43 85 46 94 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 46 82 50 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
KELLOGG 51 84 53 94 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
MOSES LAKE 54 89 57 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 61 88 64 94 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 53 88 58 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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