712
FXUS66 KOTX 250703
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1203 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
- BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
SYNOPSIS
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE HEAT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR BREEZY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S REGIONWIDE. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FELT IN THE LEWISTON-CLARKSTON VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 100-103 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT STARTING AT NOON TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WON'T DO ANYTHING TO CURB FIRE ACTIVITY
WITH THE ACTIVE FIRES IN THE CASCADES. THE LITTLE GIANT FIRE AND
SINLAHEKIN FIRE WERE ACTIVE ON MONDAY, AND THE HOTTER, DRIER WEATHER
WILL ONLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY TODAY. EXPECT
INCREASED SMOKE PRODUCTION, BUT WINDS ALOFT FROM THE EAST WILL
GENERALLY TRANSPORT THIS SMOKE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND DISPLACE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EASTWARD OVER THIS PERIOD. THE DISPLACEMENT WILL BE MORE
GRADUAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A PUSH OF MARINE
AIR THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE
INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE KITITAS VALLEY, THE
WENATCHEE RIVER VALLEY, AND OUT OVER THE FAR WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW 4,000 FT MSL
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IT DOES DEEPEN MORE
SO HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS UP TO AROUND 5,000 FT AGL.
THAT WILL BE FAIRLY LATE IN THE DAY FOR MUCH IF ANY OF THAT
COOLER MARINE AIR TO SPILL THROUGH WITH MUCH IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THUS, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT, DRY DAY,
BUT ALSO WITH WINDS A BIT BREEZIER NEAR THE CASCADES. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION CARRIES A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
THE LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUE
MOUNTAINS THAT DRIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD LEWISTON AND
PULLMAN/MOSCOW FOR THIS EVENING. FORCING ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK AND
THE QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN IN PLACE OF AROUND 50 J/KG. THAT MAY BE
TOO MUCH NEGATIVE ENERGY TO OVERCOME FOR AIR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR
LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SUPPLYING AT LEAST WEAK SYNOPTIC SALE LIFT. THE
TIMING OF THE WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AROUND
500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE
50-80 J/KG OF CIN AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED WITHOUT GOOD ALIGNMENT OF INSTABILITY WITH FORCING.
ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING QUICKLY. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY MICROBURSTS.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30-40 MPH IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 9-12 DEGREES COOLER, BUT STILL DRY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN TO BETWEEN 20-25% WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED OCCUR PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN BC
AND MONTANA RESPECTIVELY.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF, BUT A DISTURBANCE SWINGING
THROUGH WILL BRING A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES, BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
CAVEAT WILL BE SMOKE IMPACTS FROM FIRES BURNING IN THE
CASCADES, NOTABLY THE LITTLE GIANT FIRE. SMOKE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE VALLEYS AS INVERSIONS SET UP TONIGHT. DRAINAGE WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOME OF THIS SMOKE INTO KEAT FOR AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS. A NORTHEAST GRADIENT FOR TUESDAY MORNING WILL
ALSO BRING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AT KCOE AND KPUW BETWEEN
14-20Z. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY
(AFTER 21Z). AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UNLIKELY TO BE A
THREAT TO KLWS, BUT EXPECT TOWERING CUMULUS TO BE IN THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS APART FROM EAT. A STRONGER
NORTHWEST DRAINAGE FLOW THAN EXPECTED INTO EAT WILL BRING A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM AND IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 95 59 93 59 84 52 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 95 61 94 61 84 52 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 95 54 91 52 81 46 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 100 66 98 66 88 58 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 92 49 93 49 85 43 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 91 56 92 56 83 47 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
KELLOGG 94 57 94 57 82 51 / 0 0 20 20 0 0
MOSES LAKE 96 57 93 57 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 94 67 94 65 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 94 62 95 60 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LEWISTON AREA.
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