669
FXUS66 KOTX 042356
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
456 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER STICKS AROUND THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING THE REGION IN A COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN. PERTURBATIONS THAT SPIN AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INITIATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
FOR SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (40-60% CHANCE)
WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES. LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20-40%)
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA, THE NORTHERN WA
MOUNTAINS, AND THE ID PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A 15-30% CHANCE
OF ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND NORTH ID. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP TO
BETWEEN 60 AND 80% ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 0.8-1.0
INCHES (AROUND 150% OF NORMAL).
IT'S REALLY TOUGH TO PIN POINT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN PLACE WITH
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT
BRING WETTING RAINS (GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH), WHICH
WILL LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. WHERE RAIN MAY BE A NUISANCE IS IF IT GETS HEAVY OVER A
RECENT BURN SCAR, AS THAT WOULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR MINOR
FLOODING IMPACTS.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS, MONDAY WILL FEATURE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EACH
NIGHT MAY YIELD PATCHY FOG AS RAIN WILL MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODELS START TO DIVERGE TUESDAY ONWARD,
REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL BUILD IN TOWARD THE INLAND NORTHWEST, BRINGING A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. /FEWKES
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR KEAT AND
KMWH THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES OVERNIGHT .
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 73 48 73 50 71 / 0 10 40 10 50 50
COEUR D'ALENE 44 73 47 73 49 68 / 0 10 30 20 50 60
PULLMAN 43 69 43 70 46 65 / 10 20 20 10 70 60
LEWISTON 51 75 52 74 55 71 / 20 20 20 10 70 70
COLVILLE 41 75 43 75 44 74 / 0 10 40 20 30 40
SANDPOINT 43 71 47 71 48 67 / 0 10 40 30 40 50
KELLOGG 43 72 45 72 47 63 / 0 20 20 40 50 70
MOSES LAKE 46 73 47 75 50 77 / 0 0 10 20 30 30
WENATCHEE 51 74 52 76 57 78 / 10 20 20 20 20 20
OMAK 48 74 50 76 50 78 / 0 10 40 10 20 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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