057
FXUS66 KOTX 050559
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1059 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER STICKS AROUND THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. IT WILL PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RISE FROM
0.5-0.6 OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY TO 0.8-1.0 BY MONDAY. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR SATURDAY, THE CASCADES HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH AROUND
30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY. IT SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND HAS THE
BEST CHANCE WITH AROUND 60-80 PERCENT PROBABILITY. THE CHANCES
DECREASE WESTWARD WITH DAYTON TO COLVILLE BEING 40 PERCENT AND
THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON REGION HAVING 10-20 PERCENT. FOR THE 72
HOUR PERIOD, THE REGION AS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE HAVE A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING HALF AN
INCH.
LATE MORNING, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO WEAK
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD. CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE IN
THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES SUPPORT WEAK
CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES ON SATURDAY, ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS
THE BASIN.
THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL MAKE THE WEEKEND A MILD ONE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH A RANGE
OF 40S TO LOW 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED. A ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS THE
LOW EXITS. IT WILL LEAD TO DRY, WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AS REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGIN TO PRESS MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IT IS LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WEATHER BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP ON THE RADAR.
HIGHS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE PERIOD.
LATE MORNING, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADES. THESE SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT KEAT AND KMWH BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES. KEAT
HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 21-23Z BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 73 48 73 50 69 / 0 0 30 20 70 60
COEUR D'ALENE 44 73 47 73 49 66 / 0 0 20 30 70 70
PULLMAN 43 70 43 70 46 64 / 20 0 10 10 80 70
LEWISTON 51 75 52 74 55 70 / 20 0 10 10 90 80
COLVILLE 41 75 43 75 44 74 / 10 0 50 40 40 40
SANDPOINT 43 71 47 71 48 65 / 0 10 40 30 50 70
KELLOGG 43 72 45 72 48 61 / 0 20 10 30 70 80
MOSES LAKE 46 73 47 74 50 76 / 0 0 20 20 30 20
WENATCHEE 51 72 52 75 57 77 / 10 20 20 20 30 10
OMAK 48 74 50 75 50 77 / 0 10 20 20 20 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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