909
FXUS66 KOTX 061735
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1035 AM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER RECENTLY BURNED AREAS AND STEEP TERRAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER STICKS AROUND THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE SLOW MOVING LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO RISE TO
0.8-1.0 BY MONDAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A STEADY
STREAM OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST, THE
MOISTURE SWATH SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CASCADES AND MORE OVER THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. FOR SUNDAY, PRECIP
CHANCES START MAINLY OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EXPANDS WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES RISE TO
60-90 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL WA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY
FOR 0.50 INCHES ARE BETWEEN 70-90 PERCENT, 60-80 PERCENT FOR
0.75 INCHES AND 30-60 PERCENT FOR 1 INCH.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO WEAK
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE IN THE 400-800 J/KG
RANGE WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS
WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH A RANGE OF 40S TO LOW 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED. A FLAT RIDGE PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION AS THE LOW EXITS. IT WILL LEAD TO DRY, WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP IN FROM BC
FRIDAY AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGIN TO PRESS MOISTURE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT IS LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN
AROUND 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH HIGHEST
PERCENTS OVER NORTHEAST WA AND IDAHO PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WEATHER BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP ON THE RADAR.
HIGHS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM YAKIMA TO MOSES LAKE
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO WENATCHEE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH STEADIER RAIN
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. FOR THE TAF
SITES, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY, BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EASTERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON INCLUDING KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO EXTREME EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
BECOMING STEADIER IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. BETWEEN 12-18Z
MONDAY, HREF PROBABILITY RANGE FROM 50-70% FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE WITH 30% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT
KGEG/KCOE. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 75 50 68 49 72 49 / 20 70 50 30 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 75 49 64 48 70 48 / 30 80 70 40 20 0
PULLMAN 71 46 64 41 69 43 / 20 80 50 20 0 0
LEWISTON 76 55 71 50 76 52 / 20 80 60 20 0 0
COLVILLE 76 44 69 41 75 41 / 30 50 30 30 10 0
SANDPOINT 71 48 59 44 67 44 / 30 90 90 70 20 0
KELLOGG 73 48 58 46 66 47 / 50 100 90 50 20 0
MOSES LAKE 75 50 75 47 77 49 / 30 10 20 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 75 57 76 53 79 58 / 30 20 0 0 0 0
OMAK 77 50 76 50 79 52 / 30 30 20 20 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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