357
FXUS66 KOTX 072153
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
253 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER STICKS AROUND FOR LABOR DAY WITH COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NW U.S.,
WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER OVER MONTANA AND A SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS PERIOD. A DEFORMATION AXIS JOINING
THESE FEATURE IS PROVIDING A FOCAL POINT FOR MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW NEAR THE CASCADES PIVOTS SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PIVOT THAT BOUNDARY
AND THAT MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PRECIPITATION START
TO WANE FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED T-STORMS
THIS EVENING, BUT THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO PAST SUNSET. THE
STEADIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WERE FOUND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND THIS WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. THE EAST THIRD OF
WA AND ID WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CASCADES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
PRIMARY POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER IDAHO AND THE EAST THIRD OF WA.
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM, I DID DRAW THE POPS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH THAN THE NBM WAS SHOWING AS IT HAS BEEN UNDER-PERFORMING
WHEN IT COMES TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS MOVING EAST AND MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AROUND THE ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. I WENT
A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE HERE TOO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IT WILL BE DRIER. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WA AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50 IN SOME OF THE RISING TERRAIN OVER IDAHO
FROM TONIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WA AND LOWER ID IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES OF RAIN, IF ANY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
TUESDAY. WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO NOSE
IN, LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHEAST WA
AND ID PANHANDLE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS SINE SOME OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PALOUSE AND SHELTERED AREAS AROUND THE SPOKANE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A
DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO
DROP TOWARD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH THE
MOST CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. LOOK FOR DRIER
WEATHER, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 70S TO MID-80S, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. THE BROADER BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
AND JET SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION. SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH AROUND THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU THROUGH WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST AND CHOPPY WATERS
WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARD.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THEN A STRONGER LOW DIGS DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SWINGING INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE FIRST WAVE, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXPAND OUT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
WANE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MODERATE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. SATURDAY IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE MID-60S AND 70S FRIDAY, MOSTLY 60S AND
LOCALIZED LOW 70S SATURDAY, BEFORE MODERATING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND OUTLYING AREAS OVER EAST WA AND ID. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. THERE IS ALSO
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE AND FAR NE WASHINGTON. MVFR CIGS AND LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR AFTER 20-21Z
FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AS WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ADVECT DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER CENTRAL WA INTO THESE AREAS.
ALSO SEEING MARGINAL MVFR AT KPUW BUT CIGS WILL BE RISING FOR
THIS AREA AS WELL. OVER THE NORTH ID PANHANDLE AROUND SANDPOINT
AND BONNERS FERRY CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE CASCADES INTO KEAT/KMWH WILL
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 49 72 46 77 53 76 / 60 20 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 50 70 47 76 51 75 / 80 40 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 43 70 44 77 48 75 / 20 20 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 49 77 49 83 56 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 75 42 79 45 77 / 30 10 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 45 68 44 73 47 72 / 90 40 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 47 66 45 73 49 71 / 80 50 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 48 77 48 82 54 82 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 53 78 56 83 62 80 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 50 80 51 82 56 80 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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