184
FXUS66 KOTX 080455
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
955 PM PDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER STICKS AROUND FOR LABOR DAY WITH COOL AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND COMMENCES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
HIGHER PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NW U.S.,
WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER OVER MONTANA AND A SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS PERIOD. A DEFORMATION AXIS JOINING
THESE FEATURE IS PROVIDING A FOCAL POINT FOR MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THE LOW NEAR THE CASCADES PIVOTS SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PIVOT THAT BOUNDARY
AND THAT MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PRECIPITATION START
TO WANE FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED T-STORMS
THIS EVENING, BUT THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO PAST SUNSET. THE
STEADIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WERE FOUND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND THIS WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST. THE EAST THIRD OF
WA AND ID WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CASCADES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
PRIMARY POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER IDAHO AND THE EAST THIRD OF WA.
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM, I DID DRAW THE POPS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH THAN THE NBM WAS SHOWING AS IT HAS BEEN UNDER-PERFORMING
WHEN IT COMES TO THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS MOVING EAST AND MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AROUND THE ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. I WENT
A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE HERE TOO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART IT WILL BE DRIER. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.05 TO 0.25 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST WA AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE,
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50 IN SOME OF THE RISING TERRAIN OVER IDAHO
FROM TONIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WA AND LOWER ID IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES OF RAIN, IF ANY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S
TUESDAY. WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO NOSE
IN, LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NORTHEAST WA
AND ID PANHANDLE VALLEYS, AS WELL AS SINE SOME OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PALOUSE AND SHELTERED AREAS AROUND THE SPOKANE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AM.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A
DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO
DROP TOWARD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH THE
MOST CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. LOOK FOR DRIER
WEATHER, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 70S TO MID-80S, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY. THE BROADER BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
AND JET SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION. SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH AROUND THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU THROUGH WESTERN COLUMBIA
BASIN. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS, BLOWING DUST AND CHOPPY WATERS
WILL BE SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP AN EYE TOWARD.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THEN A STRONGER LOW DIGS DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE SWINGING INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MOUNTAINS
WITH THE FIRST WAVE, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXPAND OUT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO RETREAT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
WANE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME MODERATE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. SATURDAY IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE MID-60S AND 70S FRIDAY, MOSTLY 60S AND
LOCALIZED LOW 70S SATURDAY, BEFORE MODERATING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND OUTLYING AREAS OVER EAST WA AND ID. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING WEST-EAST THROUGH
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE AREA
THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY WINDS ADVECT
DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS
OFF THE CASCADES INTO KEAT/KMWH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR FROM 09-14Z.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 49 71 46 77 52 76 / 70 30 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 50 68 46 75 48 74 / 80 50 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 43 69 44 76 47 75 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 49 76 49 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 73 42 77 45 77 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 45 66 41 73 44 72 / 100 60 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 47 64 45 73 48 71 / 60 60 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 48 77 48 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 53 78 56 83 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 50 79 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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