305
FXUS66 KOTX 100737
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1237 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND DRY ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN DRY GRASSES. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST
ALONG I-90 FROM MOSES LAKE TO RITZVILLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN.
- COOLER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND. A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES COOL BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS,
ALONGSIDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH DRY FUELS
AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. THIS DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE RAIN, WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE ID PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A TRACE.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO A TIGHTENING EAST-WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE THE CASCADE
GAPS, WENATCHEE, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND COLUMBIA BASIN AREAS.
THESE AREAS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE (50 PERCENT AND ABOVE) AT SEEING
WIND GUSTS REACH 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE, SUCH AS IN THE MOSES LAKE,
SPOKANE, PALOUSE, AND LEWISTON/PULLMAN AREA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
20 TO 25 MPH. IMPACTS FROM THESE WINDS INCLUDE BLOWING OBJECTS
AND TROUBLE DRIVING, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST. DRY CONDITIONS PRECEDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
20 TO 25 PERCENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN, WATERVILLE,
PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE AREAS. THESE AREAS HAVE ALSO SEEN VERY LITTLE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS OF LATE, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DRY FUELS. ALL
OF THESE FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TOMORROW AND CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE TO
ANY EXISTING FIRES, WHICH COULD SEE RAPID FIRE SPREAD. ADDITIONALLY,
AND IN A MORE LOCALIZED AREA, DRY SOILS COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS
CREATE A BLOWING DUST CONCERN, PARTICULARLY FROM MOSES LAKE TO
RITZVILLE. BLOWING DUST CAN BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR
LOWER, IMPACTING DRIVERS.
DUE TO VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS, THIS COLD FRONT WILL END UP
PRODUCING LITTLE RAINFALL. PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN, BUT HAVE LITTLE CHANCE (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) OF SEEING
0.10 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE. DESPITE THE DRY NATURE OF THE FRONT,
MOISTURE FROM INCREASED POPS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF FOG OVER
SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS IN THE PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY: IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRIEFLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON
THURSDAY. WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S,
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE PNW COAST.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PASSAGE ON SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THIS TIME WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE BASIN, WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY COULD REACH 30-35 MPH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGETOPS COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. IMPACTS WITH THESE WIND GUSTS INCLUDE
BLOWING OBJECTS AND TROUBLE DRIVING, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER, RESULTING IN POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 PERCENT. EXPECTED
RAINFALL SHOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN OR MORE. LOWEST CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) ARE SEEN FURTHER
NORTH, SUCH AS NEAR OMAK AND COLVILLE, AS WELL AS IN THE MOSES LAKE
AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM COMES IN.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES, AND HOW QUICKLY
THE LOW WILL MOVE PAST THE AREA. THIS HAS INTRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES ARE NEARLY AN INCH IN SE WASHINGTON AND
CENTRAL IDAHO, WHICH ARE THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS.
ALONGSIDE THIS RAINFALL, CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. AREAS FROM SPOKANE TO WENATCHEE AND
SOUTHWARD HAVE A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID TO
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG,
AND STEEP 3-6KM LAPSE RATES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW BEING UNCERTAIN
ALSO MAKES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE AREA UNCERTAIN.
EVEN NOW, MANY MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, WITH
PWATS 0.5 INCHES AND ABOVE, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING SINCE THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD YIELD ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD
LEAD TO DEBRIS FLOWS OR FLOODING.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: BY MONDAY, CLUSTERS ARE DIVIDED ON WHERE THE
LOW WILL BE. ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF CLUSTERS HAVE THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL START MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL FAVOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. 40 PERCENT OF CLUSTERS HAVE
THE LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION, WHICH WOULD INDICATE CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. OVERALL, EXPECT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING BEGINNING IN THE MORNING, AROUND 16Z. GUSTS 20-25KTS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES, AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE NEXT TAF PERIOD STARTING TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL
RELAX AROUND 01-03Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WINDS, WITH SOME HIGH- RES
MODELS INDICATING STRONGER WINDS ARRIVING EARLIER. THIS IS THE
MOST IMPACTFUL SCENARIO FOR EACH TERMINAL. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 79 46 71 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
COEUR D'ALENE 78 48 71 48 70 46 / 10 10 0 0 10 70
PULLMAN 77 46 68 44 70 41 / 0 10 0 0 10 80
LEWISTON 86 54 76 52 75 52 / 0 20 0 0 20 80
COLVILLE 79 41 74 41 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 10 50
SANDPOINT 75 45 68 44 66 41 / 10 10 10 0 10 70
KELLOGG 75 47 69 47 68 45 / 0 30 0 0 10 70
MOSES LAKE 82 48 73 50 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
WENATCHEE 79 53 73 57 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 30 60
OMAK 81 49 75 52 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 50
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page