944
FXUS66 KOTX 281736
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1036 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY PATTERN THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR RAIN NEAR THE CASCADE CREST
AND CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
ON TUESDAY, BUT REMAINING MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THE CASCADES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: A ZONAL A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY. IT WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM 0.3-0.5
OF AN INCH TO 0.6-0.0 OF AN INCH. IT WILL BE A PRECURSOR TO THE
INCOMING WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. HIGHS
FOR THE DAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S RANGE.
TUESDAY: A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MANY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE RAIN SHADOW
EFFECT WILL LIMIT PRECIP ACROSS THE BASIN. ENSEMBLES ARE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RAINS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST WITH AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN, WITH LIGHT
RAIN SPILLING OVER THE CREST INTO THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
METHOW VALLEY, LAKE CHELAN, AND LAKE WENATCHEE. WEAKER CHANCES
EXTEND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IDAHO PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. THE REGION WILL BE
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH SPEEDS NEAR 140
KTS, THE CASCADE RIDGES HAS POTENTIAL OF GUSTS INTO 40-50 MPH
RANGE. WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60 TO LOW
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A UPPER 30S TO
40 RANGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL NUDGE A RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
IT WILL BRING A WARM, DRY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. ENSEMBLES
DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF THE THE RIDGE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
40S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 04Z WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTEN LADEN WESTERLY 500MB JET. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
OKANOGAN VALLEY. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CASCADES
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PROMOTE LEE WAVES AND FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR TURBULENCE WITH GUSTY WINDS SURFACING IN THE
LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CASCADE CREST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS TUESDAY AS WELL WITH
STEADY PRECIPITAITON. /SB
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 67 45 68 47 69 42 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 66 43 65 48 67 43 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
PULLMAN 65 42 68 45 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 70 46 74 55 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
COLVILLE 69 41 67 36 69 34 / 0 0 10 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 63 41 62 42 64 39 / 0 0 10 30 0 0
KELLOGG 64 42 62 48 64 44 / 0 0 10 40 10 0
MOSES LAKE 71 46 72 45 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 70 50 69 52 68 50 / 0 0 20 10 0 0
OMAK 69 48 66 44 69 44 / 0 0 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-
SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN.
ID...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COEUR D'ALENE
AREA.
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