164
FXUS66 KOTX 292337
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
437 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING
DUST NEAR RECENTLY PLOWED FIELDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
- MILD AND DRY PATTERN THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR RAIN NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN UNDER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
DRIVEN BY A 120+ KT JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS
THE JET SAGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, 250 MB WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE TO 100+
KTS, SUSTAINING GUSTY WINDS ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING CLEARING CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE JET
BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO MIGRATING BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BEFORE THE
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW QUICKLY
THE TEMPERATURES CAN DECREASE BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIVE COOLING. CURRENTLY, THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS GIVES DEER PARK 20% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
BELOW 36F.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
FLAT ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST INITIALLY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CASCADES BOTH DAYS, THESE SYSTEMS WILL
PRIMARILY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, INITIATING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FAVORS PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
HOWEVER, 25% OF ENSEMBLES SHOW THE RIDGE TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR WEATHER SYSTEMS TO FLATTEN IT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. /VMT
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LEE WAVES AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
TURBULENCE WITH GUSTY WINDS SURFACING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, MODELS SUGGEST CEILINGS MAY LOWER
TO MVFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
EASTERN WA, WITH A 40% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT AT
KCOE AFTER 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED GUSTS. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON
INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AFTER 12Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KCOE AFTER 12Z. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 47 67 43 68 45 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 49 65 44 66 46 69 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 48 64 44 68 45 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 54 70 49 73 51 76 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 39 66 36 68 38 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 44 63 41 64 42 67 / 30 10 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 48 61 44 65 45 68 / 50 20 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 46 70 45 72 46 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 50 69 51 69 53 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 41 68 44 68 45 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...NONE.
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