067
FXUS66 KOTX 300512
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1012 PM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING
DUST NEAR RECENTLY PLOWED FIELDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
- MILD AND DRY PATTERN THIS WEEK, EXCEPT FOR RAIN NEAR THE
CASCADE CREST AND CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE ON
TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADE CREST
AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
REMAIN UNDER STRONG WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
DRIVEN BY A 120+ KT JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS
THE JET SAGS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, 250 MB WINDS ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE TO 100+
KTS, SUSTAINING GUSTY WINDS ALONG MOUNTAIN RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING CLEARING CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE JET
BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO MIGRATING BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BEFORE THE
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW QUICKLY
THE TEMPERATURES CAN DECREASE BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIVE COOLING. CURRENTLY, THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS GIVES DEER PARK 20% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
BELOW 36F.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
FLAT ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST INITIALLY OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CASCADES BOTH DAYS, THESE SYSTEMS WILL
PRIMARILY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, INITIATING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FAVORS PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
HOWEVER, 25% OF ENSEMBLES SHOW THE RIDGE TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR WEATHER SYSTEMS TO FLATTEN IT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST UNDER A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT, MODELS
SUGGEST CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND EXTREME EASTERN WA, WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT AT KCOE AFTER 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED
GUSTS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AFTER
12Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KCOE AFTER 12Z.
PUT SCT LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN BKN OR OVC GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 68 48 67 44 68 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 65 50 65 43 66 45 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 69 48 64 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 76 54 70 49 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 62 40 67 37 67 38 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 58 44 64 38 64 41 / 40 20 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 62 48 61 44 65 45 / 20 30 10 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 71 47 70 44 72 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 72 51 69 51 69 52 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 64 45 68 43 68 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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