700
FXUS66 KOTX 301225
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
525 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO ISOLATED AREAS
OF FROST DEVELOPMENT.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAK IN THE
70S AND LOW 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE NORTH CASCADES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
RISING INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S BY THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING BENIGN THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY: CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO PLUMMET INTO THE
30S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO DROP BEFORE MORE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND CLOUD
COVER ROLLS IN, LIMITING FURTHER RADIATIVE COOLING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST INITIALLY OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH CASCADES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE, THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRIMARILY RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, INITIATING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BEYOND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FAVORS
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. GREAT PUMPKIN PATCH WEATHER LIES AHEAD!
/FEWKES
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: CONTINUED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVERHEAD WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER NE WA AND ID
MOUNTAINS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS
RESULTING CEILINGS INCREASING AND THINNING OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS DIMINISHING TODAY AS WELL AS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS HANGING ON THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE. THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF MVFR AT KCOE THROUGH 18Z.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 67 44 68 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 65 43 66 45 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 64 43 68 45 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 70 49 74 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 67 37 67 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 64 38 64 41 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 61 44 65 45 69 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 70 44 72 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 69 51 69 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 68 43 68 46 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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