043
FXUS66 KOTX 180017
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
517 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES WITH FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
- COOLER WEATHER WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY CONDITIONS DECLINE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT: WIND WILL DECLINE AND SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY,
CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES
EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR SLIDES IN. WINDS WILL DECLINE TO AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH STRONGEST OVER THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN TO MOSES LAKE AREA, DECLINING AFTER 7 TO 9 PM.
WITH THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS AND DRIER AIR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID-30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS MEANS FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY. THAT NEXT LOW STARTS TO
DIG ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, STRETCHES AND
TRACKS LARGELY TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
INLAND THERE TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SOUTH OF OUR AREAS, BUT LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY
STALLED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CWA COULD BE A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITION IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% PER THE NBM AND LREF. SOME BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TO
WATERVILLE PLATEAU ON TUESDAY IN THE TIGHTENING NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID-60S AND LOWS LARGELY IN THE 30S, WITH SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE SHELTERED NORTHEAST VALLEYS. THOSE HIGHS ARE
ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY: ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SWINGS A SYSTEM THROUGH INTO FRIDAY.
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOWS SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EMERGE OVER SOUTHEAST WA/LOWER ID
THURSDAY AND A BROADER PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, CENTRAL WA IS APT TO REMAIN DRY. OTHER SHOWER
CHANCES LINGER SATURDAY. OVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR >=0.10" OVER THE
48-HOUR PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS
OVER THE CASCADE CREST AND THE LOWER AND CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE,
WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 40 TO 60%. SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURE DO TREND DOWN, BUT ENSEMBLE BOX-AND-WHISKER PLOTS
SHOW A RANGE OF ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURE AND ABOUT A 2000 FOOT DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS. IT WILL BE MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW DROPPING TO PASS LEVEL LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SPREAD, CONFIDENCES ARE
LOW AND RIGHT NOW AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT IF ANYTHING. HIGHS RIGHT
NOW ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY, DROPPING INTO 50S
FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY; LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S, DROPPING TOWARD THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT SATURDAY AM. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS COME WITH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY PATTERN CHANCES, RIGHT NOW GUSTING 15-20 MPH
LOCALLY NEAR 25-30 MPH OVER THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN/WATERVILLE
PLATEAU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO CONFIDENCE
IN ALL THESE DETAILS IS LOW TO MEDIUM; BUT BROADLY SPEAKING IT
LOOKS COOLER WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN BEHIND THE EARLY COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 61 39 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 35 61 39 61 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 36 62 38 59 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 41 66 42 65 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 29 62 31 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 32 60 37 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 36 60 39 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 32 63 37 62 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 36 62 43 62 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 33 63 38 62 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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