920
FXUS66 KOTX 182344
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
444 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- BREEZY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST.
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO THICKENING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE DIGS SOUTH AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION TO BRING THESE CLOUDS. HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND BETTER LIFT STAY SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS
DECREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND WILL BE BREEZY
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TO
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, WITH THE DEEPER LOW TO THE SOUTH. GUSTS OF
15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. HIGHS
WILL LARGELY IN THE 60S MONDAY, WARMING TO THE MID-60S TO LOW
70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW WILL BE THE 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH
SOME UPPER 20S IN SHELTERED VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
CALIFORNIA, WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STARTS TO DRAW MOISTURE IN. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND RAIN CHANCES START TO ENTER SOUTHEAST WA/LOWER ID
WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST WA/LOWER ID BUT AT LEAST A MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%)
EXTENDS TOWARD NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID. THIS WILL LARGELY BE
DUE TO MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WAVE MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CWA. OTHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
FOUND NEAR THE CASCADES LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THAT NORTHERN SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN (>=0.10") BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS OVER
SOUTHEAST WA THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ID PANHANDLE AT
50-70%.
THEREAFTER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW SYSTEMS AND MOISTURE
INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING NORTHERN SYSTEM. FRIDAY RIGHT NOW
LOOKS DRIER, SAVE FOR SOME SHOWER CHANCES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH A WAVE
MOVING IN WITH GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH, STRONGER OVER THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN TO WATERVILLE PLATEAU. WITH THE INCOMING LOW THE
RAIN CHANCES EXPAND BACK OUT LATER SATURDAY INTO NEXT SUNDAY,
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAINS MODESTLY
WIDE AT 10-15 DEGREES AND THERE IS ALSO A SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS,
MEANING CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WANES. WITH THAT SAID, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING THEM DOWN TO PASS LEVEL. IT COULD EVEN
BE COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY AM FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND MAYBE AROUND
THE METRO. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (>=0.10") SATURDAY NIGHT
IS AROUND 20-40%, LOWEST IN THE DEEPER BASIN; CHANCES RISE TO
AROUND 30-50% SUNDAY LOCALLY NEAR 60% IN THE CASCADES. THIS IS
ALL TO SAY, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS BUT ALSO NOT
VERY HEAVY AT THIS POINT. SNOW CHANCES COME TO THE CASCADES
SATURDAY AND STARTS TO EXPAND TO THE OTHER MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN THE 48-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE PASSES, LOCALLY AROUND 3 TO 4 POSSIBLE AT SHERMAN AND
WASHINGTON PASS. RIGHT SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR 1" IS AROUND
30-40, NEAR 60% NEAR WASHINGTON PASS.
HIGHS STAY IN THE 60S THURSDAY, THEN COOL TO THE 50S FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY, LOCALLY THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN 30S TO LOW
40S THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AM, THEN UPPER 20S AND 30S
THEREAFTER, WITH SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST MORNING. FRIDAY
LOOKS BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTING
15-30 MPH; NEXT SUNDAY ALSO HAS SIMILARLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL WA. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS
REGIONWIDE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A BROKEN
TO OVERCAST CIRROSTRATUS DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 39 61 40 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 39 62 40 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 38 60 36 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 42 66 42 66 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 31 62 33 67 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 37 61 38 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 39 64 41 66 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 37 62 37 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 43 63 44 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 38 63 39 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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