544
FXUS66 KOTX 192136
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
236 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
- BREEZY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. COOLER WEATHER AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
PNW COAST AROUND 130W IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING THE INLAND NORTHWEST
WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SUBTLE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND STRENGTHENS THE CYLW-KPSC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
+4-6 MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30
MPH DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG, OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PURCELL TRENCH IN NORTH IDAHO WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVE
THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS MOSTLY DRY,
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WILL BRING A 30-
50% CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND A 50-80% CHANCE
ACROSS NORTH IDAHO. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE KPDX-KGPI
INCREASING TO +12-17 MB FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON (60-80% CHANCE) WITH A 30-50% CHANCE ACROSS THE
SPOKANE AREA. BLOWING DUST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD GIVEN THE LACK OF DUST GENERATION DURING RECENT COMPARABLE
WIND EVENTS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL MARK THE TREND TOWARD COOLER
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES.
BY THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASES REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS REVEALS CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE: 42
PERCENT OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROJECT A DEEPER TROUGH
INFLUENCING THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH COOLER, WETTER CONDITIONS.
CONVERSELY, 25 PERCENT MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW, AND 33
PERCENT DEPICT A FLAT RIDGE WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM TRAVERSING NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. BOTH OF THESE LATTER SCENARIOS FAVOR A WARMER,
DRIER SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOME. AI ENSEMBLES PROVIDE LITTLE
CONSENSUS, AS THE GEFS AI ENSEMBLE FAVORS THE COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION (WHICH IS THE OPPOSITE OF THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS) WHILE
THE ECMWF AIFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES ONLY SUBTLE MEAN TROUGHING,
HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THICK MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING
OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN NORTH IDAHO. GUSTS UP 25-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AT KOMK TUESDAY MORNING. LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
THE OKANOGAN VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 41 68 40 67 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
COEUR D'ALENE 41 68 41 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
PULLMAN 37 67 38 68 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 60
LEWISTON 42 68 44 70 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
COLVILLE 33 67 33 70 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 38 66 38 66 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
KELLOGG 41 68 41 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 50
MOSES LAKE 39 70 37 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
WENATCHEE 46 68 46 68 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 39 68 39 69 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page