546
FXUS66 KOTX 202139
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
239 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMES WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WEATHER WILL BE WARM AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SUBTLE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVE
THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS MOSTLY DRY,
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WILL BRING A 30-
70% CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR WASHINGTON ARE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, INCLUDING
THE PALOUSE, THE L-C VALLEY, AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS NORTH
IDAHO, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ACROSS SHOSHONE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
WEST WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE KPDX-KGPI INCREASING TO +12-17 MB
FRIDAY MORNING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 30 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON (60-
90% CHANCE). CHANCES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH HAVE DECREASED
ACROSS THE SPOKANE AREA, WITH NOW ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE. BLOWING DUST
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD GIVEN THE LACK OF DUST
GENERATION DURING RECENT COMPARABLE WIND EVENTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASES REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO REVEAL CONSIDERABLE
VARIANCE. ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED ON THE
IDEA OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INFLUENCING THE INLAND NORTHWEST, WITH
ONLY 20% SHOWING THIS SCENARIO NOW. 37% OF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, LEAVING THE INLAND NORTHWEST
UNDER SUBTLE RIDGING AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
CASCADES. THE LAST 43% DO NOT HAVE THIS LOW NEAR THE PNW AT ALL AND
KEEP THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER SOME FORM OF RIDGING. SO, 80% OF
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES NOW FAVOR A DRIER AND WARMER WEEKEND FOR THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. THE NBM STILL MAINTAINS A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND A 10-15% CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS FURTHER INCREASED BY A 9-12 DEGREEF
SPREAD IN THE THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS IN THE
NBM ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. AI ENSEMBLES STILL PROVIDE LITTLE
CONSENSUS, AS THE GEFS AI ENSEMBLE FAVORS THE COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION (WHICH IS THE OPPOSITE OF THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS) WHILE
THE ECMWF AIFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES ONLY SUBTLE MEAN TROUGHING,
HIGHLIGHTING THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10K FT
AGL. THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LIGHTER
WINDS RETURN REGIONWIDE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 39 68 40 64 41 59 / 0 0 0 20 50 0
COEUR D'ALENE 40 68 42 65 41 56 / 0 0 0 40 60 10
PULLMAN 39 68 42 62 36 51 / 0 0 0 60 70 0
LEWISTON 43 70 46 64 44 58 / 0 0 0 70 80 10
COLVILLE 32 68 33 67 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
SANDPOINT 37 66 38 65 38 55 / 0 0 0 10 60 10
KELLOGG 41 69 44 67 39 50 / 0 0 0 40 80 30
MOSES LAKE 36 68 36 66 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 44 68 46 68 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 39 69 40 68 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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