168
FXUS66 KOTX 210514
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1014 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER AND MILD TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMES WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE INLAND NW
AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANGES ARRIVE AS A LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA, NEVADA AND
SOUTHERN IDAHO. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE GETS PICKED UP BY AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
NEAR 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON AND AS MUCH AS 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN NORTH IDAHO.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH THE LC VALLEY, CAMAS
PRAIRIE, BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND PALOUSE AND A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN FROM RITZVILLE UP THROUGH SPOKANE, NEWPORT, AND THE
NORTH ID PANHANDLE. YET WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FROM THE WEST
THIS MOISTURE INCREASE IS SHORT LIVED WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON WITH A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OVER THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER AIR COMING INTO
CENTRAL WA ON FRIDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PLUMMET TO
25-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS (LOCALLY WINDY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND
WATERVILLE PLATEAU) BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. WINDS EASE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THE VERY DRY AIR OVER
THE REGION RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST (EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND WENATCHEE), WITH
THE COLDER POCKETS SUCH AS REPUBLIC AND DEER PARK FALLING INTO
THE LOW 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
A LOW THAT STRENGTHENS OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST ON SATURDAY AND
THEN WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT. 40 PERCENT OF THE CLUSTERS MOVE
THE LOW NEAR OR OVER THE REGION FOR COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER
WHILE THE OTHER 60 PERCENT MAINTAIN RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY PROVIDES A MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT WITH A 10-15
DEGREE RANGE BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. IF THE COOLER AND
SHOWERY SCENARIO PANS OUT SNOW COULD FALL AS LOW AS 3500 TO 5000
FEET IN THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 10K FT
AGL. LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 39 67 40 64 41 59 / 0 0 0 20 40 0
COEUR D'ALENE 40 68 40 66 40 56 / 0 0 0 10 60 10
PULLMAN 39 68 42 62 36 51 / 0 0 0 60 60 0
LEWISTON 43 70 46 64 45 58 / 0 0 0 70 70 10
COLVILLE 32 68 31 67 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 20 0
SANDPOINT 37 66 37 66 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 50 10
KELLOGG 41 69 43 67 39 50 / 0 0 0 30 70 30
MOSES LAKE 36 68 35 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 44 67 46 69 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 39 69 39 68 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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