383
FXUS66 KOTX 221807
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1107 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND WINDY FRIDAY OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND
ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON INTO
NORTH IDAHO BY THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, WHICH COMBINED
WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY: WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH- CENTRAL WA FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING DELIVERING STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-30 MPH AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE NEAR 100% FOR SOME AREAS WITH
25TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH FOR ISOLATED
AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PEAK GUSTS
3AM-11AM. MAIN CONCERNS DURING THESE WINDS WILL BE ISOLATED TREE
DAMAGE AND CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN CRESTON AND
DOUGLAS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND
COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY,
NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY, AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MENTIONED IN THE
DISCUSSION BELOW WITH CONCERNS FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
EJECT NORTHEAST INTO CALIFORNIA, NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. WHILE
THE SYSTEM IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH, SOME OF THIS MOISTURE
GETS PICKED UP BY AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 175-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BAND OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH
MODELS TRENDING WETTER WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.30 INCHES FROM
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND PALOUSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SPOKANE AREA,
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND ID PANHANDLE. ALSO AIDING IN
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH 700-500MB MU CAPE
VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG. TIMING OF RAIN FOR EASTERN WA IS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO CENTRAL WA AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. THE DRY AIR REALLY BECOMES
NOTEWORTHY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PLUMMET
TO 25-50 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS (LOCALLY WINDY DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND
WATERVILLE PLATEAU) WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST. WINDS EASE FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE STRONG, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
(EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND WENATCHEE), WITH THE COLDER POCKETS SUCH AS
REPUBLIC AND DEER PARK FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A LOW THAT STRENGTHENS OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST ON SATURDAY
AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT. 45 PERCENT OF THE CLUSTERS
POSITION THE LOW BY MONDAY NEAR THE WA COAST FOR COOLER AND
SHOWERY WEATHER, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES. 20 PERCENT TAKE THE
LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH COOLER AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERY WEATHER, AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE REMAINING 35
PERCENT HAVE THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST AND MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WHICH CURRENTLY PROVIDES A MIDDLE GROUND
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT WITH
A 10-15 DEGREE RANGE BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. WASHINGTON PASS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SPREADING INTO KPUW/KLWS IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND THEN UP INTO KGEG/KSFF/KCOE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE INITIAL MOISTENING OF
THE AIR MASS. THEREAFTER, RAIN WILL FILL IN AND BECOME STEADY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN INTENSITIES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY
TO MVFR BEFORE 03Z. AFTER 03Z, PROBABILITIES INCREASE WITH TIME
REACHING 50% AT KPUW/KLWS BETWEEN 04-07Z AND 20-30% KGEG-KCOE
CLOSER TO 09Z. VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL WA FOR
KOMK/KEAT/KMWH/KCQV. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CASCADES AFTER 03Z AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE EVENING. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY BETWEEN
07-12Z AND SPREAD TOWARD KMWH. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
EXPECTED AT KOMK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS
TIMING THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS (GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS / LOWER VISIBILITY FROM MODERATE RAIN
INTENSITIES). MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE WHICH COULD COME IN AS FAR WEST AS KMWH OR EAST
AROUND KLWS/KPUW. ONCE RAIN SETTLES IN, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
COMES WITH PRECISE CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 05Z FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. THERE IS 10-20% CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 65 41 60 32 56 35 / 20 80 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 67 43 57 34 56 35 / 20 90 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 63 40 52 28 54 32 / 40 90 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 65 47 58 34 59 38 / 50 100 30 0 0 0
COLVILLE 68 35 61 23 58 25 / 0 60 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 67 44 57 31 55 31 / 10 90 20 10 0 10
KELLOGG 70 43 50 32 54 34 / 20 100 50 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 64 37 65 27 58 31 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 67 42 63 36 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 68 41 62 29 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
ID...NONE.
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