685
FXUS66 KOTX 222145
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
245 PM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS
A 50 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IN THE SPOKANE AREA, PALOUSE, AND ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE (SEE
WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC ON OUR WEBPAGE: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SPOKANE)
- DRY AND WINDY FRIDAY OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND ISOLATED TREE
DAMAGE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON INTO NORTH
IDAHO BY THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CENTRAL
WASHINGTON WILL MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, WHICH COMBINED WITH DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST. COOLER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
STORE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS WORTH
MONITORING ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THAT WILL BRING BOTH A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER AND DRY/WINDY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRST AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRAW
NORTHWARD A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A ROBUST SUB-TROPICAL
JET STREAK ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WITH SPEEDS OF UP TO
AROUND 95-100 KTS AT 250 MB. THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL SUPPLY
REFERENCING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT,
BUT THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS FOR OUR REGION WILL COME VIA A COLD
FRONT BEING SUPPLIED BY THE POLAR JET AND NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE STORM TRACK.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING
NEEDED TO SQUEEZE OUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
IN. THE FINAL PART OF THE EQUATION IS THE INSTABILITY. MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO THE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
LESS STEEP OVERNIGHT AS THE REGIME TRANSITIONS FROM SHOWERS TO
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO INCLUDE SHORT- LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS, L-C
VALLEY, AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASES TO A NEAR
CERTAINTY BY 8:00 TO 10:00 PM GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
RITZVILLE TO COLVILLE AND POINTS EASTWARD. THERE'S AROUND A 70%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN AND A 10-30%
CHANCE FOR SPOTS RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN. THIS HIGHER
END OF MORE THAN INCH WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR WHERE WE SEE BURSTS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UNDER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
CELLS.
IMPACTS WITH THE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR WATER TO POND IN LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS WHERE
LEAVES AND DEBRIS HASN'T BEEN CLEARED AROUND DRAINS. SEEING THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SEVERE DROUGHT CURRENTLY, THIS
RAIN WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL.
ALONG WITH THAT NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE STORM TRACK AND COLD FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND A PUNCH OF
MUCH DRIER AIR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF DRYING THAT IS
OCCURRING IN SUBSIDENCE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THIS PUNCH OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CASCADES AND INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY (AFTER 4:00 AM).
THIS WILL GO ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A PACKING OF
THE ISOBARS WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WA. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WITH GUST UP TO 40-50 MPH IS EXPECTED DOWN THE OKANOGAN
VALLEY, ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. A WINDY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING A MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 3:00 PM ON FRIDAY.
DEW POINTS WILL CRASH INTO THE TEENS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG RIDGETOPS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WELL. WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MINOR RISK FOR FIRE
SPREAD IN DRY GRASSES AND ALSO FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY COOLING INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION; THE MORE SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS LOOK
TO COOL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT THE SURFACE. DOESN'T LOOK AS COLD HEADING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND THAT STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. ABOUT 60% OF THE MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE BC COAST AND EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADING SCENARIO WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LIGHT. THEN THERE IS AROUND 40% OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLES
THAT HAS THE LOW FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST WITH RIDGING OF HIGHER
PRESSURE TO MORE DOMINATE THE REGION. THIS SLIGHTLY LOWER
PROBABILITY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES WOULD SUPPORT A MILDER AND DRY
FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SPREADING INTO KPUW/KLWS IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND THEN UP INTO KGEG/KSFF/KCOE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE INITIAL MOISTENING OF
THE AIR MASS. THEREAFTER, RAIN WILL FILL IN AND BECOME STEADY.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN INTENSITIES WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY
TO MVFR BEFORE 03Z. AFTER 03Z, PROBABILITIES INCREASE WITH TIME
REACHING 50% AT KPUW/KLWS BETWEEN 04-07Z AND 20-30% KGEG-KCOE
CLOSER TO 09Z. VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL WA FOR
KOMK/KEAT/KMWH/KCQV. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CASCADES AFTER 03Z AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE EVENING. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY BETWEEN
07-12Z AND SPREAD TOWARD KMWH. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
EXPECTED AT KOMK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS
TIMING THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS (GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS / LOWER VISIBILITY FROM MODERATE RAIN
INTENSITIES). MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE WHICH COULD COME IN AS FAR WEST AS KMWH OR EAST
AROUND KLWS/KPUW. ONCE RAIN SETTLES IN, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
COMES WITH PRECISE CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 05Z FOR
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS. THERE IS 10-20% CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 57 32 55 35 57 / 90 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 43 56 33 55 34 57 / 90 30 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 40 52 28 54 32 58 / 100 30 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 47 57 35 58 36 62 / 100 40 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 36 59 22 57 26 57 / 60 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 44 55 31 53 31 54 / 90 30 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 43 50 32 53 34 57 / 100 60 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 39 63 28 57 31 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 42 61 37 55 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 41 60 30 54 33 57 / 10 0 0 0 10 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU.
ID...NONE.
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