503
FXUS66 KOTX 231145
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
445 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND WINDY FRIDAY OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS, WATERVILLE
PLATEAU, AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND ISOLATED TREE
DAMAGE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CENTRAL WASHINGTON WILL
MISS OUT ON THE RAIN, WHICH COMBINED WITH DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST. COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE WEEKS CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH NORTH AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW CENTER WILL PASS
OVER WESTERN MT AND SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE INLAND
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PASSES. SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES HAVE A
25-75 PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 0.1-0.3 OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION, A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 50-60 KTS WILL BRING PUSH BREEZY NORTH TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN. WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL (800-750MB)
ARE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS-20 MPH AND GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER 30-40 MPH RANGE. THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU HAS A
NEAR 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE 50S. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS OF CONCERN. WINDS
WILL START TO DECREASE MID AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE STARTS TO FILL
IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 20S TO LOW 30S.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SATURDAY WILL BE BE MAINLY DRY AS
THE REGION IS UNDER A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND
ANOTHER ONE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A LOW DROPPING ALONG THE COAST. THE DISCREPANCY COMES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. AROUND 60 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE
LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTH OREGON AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THE OTHER 40 PERCENT HAVE THE LOW
FIZZLING OUT ALONG THE COAST LINE WITH A STRONGER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING AT ALL
TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. THIS IS USHERING
DRIER AIR IN TO THE REGION WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
ONGOING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z IN
WASHINGTON AND 14-16Z IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING A DECREASE IN RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE BAND OF
PRECIPITAITON SHIFTING EAST OF THE ID-MT BORDER BY 18Z. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT. MOST TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE GUSTS 15-25KTS WITH LOCALLY 35KTS AROUND OMAK, GRAND
COULEE, AND MOSES LAKE. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR BLOWING DUST
BETWEEN OMAK AND GRAND COULEE THOUGH THIS COMES WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT BUT MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECISE HOUR. ONE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A SLOWLY
EVOLUTION OF LOW CEILINGS LIFTING FROM 900 FT AGL TO 3000 FT
AGL BETWEEN 12-17Z FOR TERMINALS SUCH AS KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW. A
SECOND SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO BECOME
SCATTERED QUICKLY AS THE DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 57 30 55 34 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
COEUR D'ALENE 56 32 55 33 57 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
PULLMAN 52 28 54 33 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 20
LEWISTON 57 32 58 36 63 40 / 20 0 0 0 0 20
COLVILLE 58 21 55 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 55 30 53 31 54 31 / 20 10 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 50 31 53 33 57 34 / 50 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 63 27 57 30 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
WENATCHEE 61 36 54 37 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
OMAK 60 30 54 33 58 37 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE
PLATEAU.
ID...NONE.
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