468
FXUS66 KOTX 240009
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
509 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WINDY FRIDAY OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS, WATERVILLE PLATEAU,
AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND ISOLATED
TREE DAMAGE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. CHILLY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN MODIFYING
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE OKANOGAN VALLEY/HIGHLANDS,
WATERVILLE PLATEAU, MOSES LAKE AREA AND UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN HAS
EXPIRED. WINDS ARE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO INTO THIS EVENING.
SYNOPSIS
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. NOT AS
CHILLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY: CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING
REFLECTS A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE TEENS TO
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 40S. THE
PROGNOSES IS FOR THIS DRY AIR TO CONTINUE TO PUNCH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DECREASING CLOUD OVER EXPECTED OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. WINDS
HAVE ALSO PICKED UP AND ARE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COMMON. THE NORTH WINDS
EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL RELAX INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY RELAXING AND WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING TILL MIDNIGHT WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THIS PERIOD. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MIGRATE OFF OF THE WASHINGTON COAST
TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN START TO PUSH ACROSS THE CASCADES
INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE RADIATIVE
COOLING PROCESS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING NEAR TO OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SPOTS IN THE MOSES LAKE
AREA IN THE LEWISTON-CLARKSTON VALLEY THAT HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON, BUT NOT ALL LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE ZONES AT THE END OF
THEIR GROWING SEASON WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE DRY ENOUGH FOR THE WENATCHEE AREA TO RADIATE TO NEAR FREEZING,
BUT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE AREAS THERE HAVE A HARDER
TIME TO HIT FREEZING. IT WAS DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S NEAR TO
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. PLANTS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST OR FREEZE DAMAGE
SHOULD TAKE ACTION TODAY TO COVER THEM OR BRING THEM INSIDE TO
PROTECT FROM DAMAGE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT DEVELOPS WILL EJECT INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. WHERE THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TRACKS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODEL ENSEMBLES TRACKS THE LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAJORITY OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKES THE MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS FURTHER NORTH. EVEN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
DOESN'T SPREAD MUCH PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE REGION FOR TWO
REASONS: (1) WE ARE STARTING OUT DRY AND (2) THIS LOW WON'T TAP
INTO A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE LIKE THE LOW THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS
LOW END CHANCES FOR MEASURING UP TO A 30- 60% CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE
WETTER ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS GIVES THIS PORTION OF THE
REGION BETWEEN A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 6,000
FEET FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SNOW AT OVER THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
SCENARIOS INCREASES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY
INDICATIONS IS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK. ROUGHLY 50% OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS THE LOW
DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, IF NOT RIGHT OVER WASHINGTON BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN THERE IS THE OTHER 50% THAT
DIGS ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER IN
PROXIMITY TO OREGON OR CALIFORNIA. LIKE THE UPPER LOW EARLY IN
THE WEEK, THIS ONE LATER IN THE WEEK DOESN'T LOOK TO TAP INTO A
GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS GENERATED BY
THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BRING LIMITED PRECIPITATION. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER DOWN TO 3,000 TO 4,500
FEET AND MAY GENERATE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST NEAR
AVERAGE, IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL IF THE UPPER LOW
DOES DECIDE TO PASS MORE SO OVER THE REGION. /SVH
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR WATER BODIES IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BECAUSE OF THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, AND AIRPORT
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES NOW THAT THE DRY AIR HAS
FIRMLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 31 56 34 59 37 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 32 55 34 58 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 27 54 32 59 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
LEWISTON 32 58 36 62 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
COLVILLE 21 55 25 59 26 58 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
SANDPOINT 31 53 32 54 31 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 31 53 34 57 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 27 57 31 59 34 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
WENATCHEE 35 55 37 56 41 57 / 0 0 0 20 40 40
OMAK 29 55 33 58 36 59 / 0 0 10 20 30 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR LOWER
GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WENATCHEE
AREA.
ID...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR LEWISTON
AREA.
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