826
FXUS66 KOTX 240552
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1052 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. CHILLY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN MODIFYING
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. NOT AS CHILLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A MILD, DRY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS A
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS OVER THE REGION BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER LOW WILL SLIDE DOWN THE COASTLINE FROM BC TO OREGON
THROUGH SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING AND TRACK. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK OVER OREGON THROUGH
MONDAY. IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THE AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING TO BE MUCH AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE HALF AN INCH.
THE DAILY 25-75 PERCENT PROBABILITIES ARE: 0-0.1 ON SUNDAY,
0.1-0.3 ON MONDAY, AND 0.05-0.2 (HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST
WA AND LOWER ID PANHANDLE) ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 4500 FT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AGAIN,
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. AROUND 35
PERCENT OF MEMBERS HAVE THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
OTHER 65 PERCENT HAVE A MORE GENERALLY BROAD TROUGH PATTERN
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. IT WILL PUSH SOME COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KTS) ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NEAR WATER BODIES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. DRIER AIR
IS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. AIRPORT TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CLEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES NOW THAT THE DRY
AIR HAS FIRMLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 31 56 34 59 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
COEUR D'ALENE 32 55 33 58 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
PULLMAN 27 54 31 59 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
LEWISTON 32 58 36 63 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 50
COLVILLE 21 55 25 59 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 31 53 31 54 31 53 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 31 54 33 56 34 55 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 27 57 31 60 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 20 40
WENATCHEE 35 54 37 56 41 57 / 0 0 0 20 50 40
OMAK 29 55 32 59 36 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR WENATCHEE AREA.
ID...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR LEWISTON AREA.
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